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Old 03-17-2008, 04:50 PM   #1
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The Villian In The Diesel Fuel Price Disparity

The case against the usual suspect - the EPA is airtight.

The government knew as far back as 2001 that the EPA?s ULSD and Tier II regulations would have a catastrophic effect on diesel fuel prices. Here?s May 2001 study on the subject.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/ser...iaf2001-01.pdf

If you don?t have the time to chop through nearly 200 pages, this is the long and the short of it.

Regulation 6.7 cents
Capital investment costs 7.6 cents
Revamp costs 6.9 cents
10% down grade costs 7.1 cents (some ULSD will be downgraded to LSD)
Efficiency loss 6.7 cents
Energy loss 7.0 cents
Imports not meeting new spec 8.1 cents

Total 50.1 cents per gallon

And these figures (as the link explains) are in 1999 dollars. This is why diesel now costs 60 cents a gallon more than unleaded.

All this is over and above price increases due to the cost of crude, now sitting at about $2.60/gallon.

Add on top of that the fact that Tier II robbed diesels of about 4% of their efficiency.

Thank the EPA.
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:32 AM   #2
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Yeah, the more money we send to government yields less intelligence in policy changes.

Higher cost of food, getting to work, getting kids to schools, etc.

If it were only market driven conditions, I wouldn't complain so much, but it's too many consistent policy boondoggles that have made a mess of so many things.
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Old 03-18-2008, 07:05 AM   #3
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Yeah, the more money we send to government yields less intelligence in policy changes.

[...]

getting kids to schools
Fer sure. Those little punks don't need less pollution from diesel school buses. They need more! Natural selection and alla that.
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I think if i could get that type of FE i would have no problem driving a dildo shaped car.
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Old 03-18-2008, 07:24 AM   #4
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Can't help you. Works in Europe. Good day.
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:06 AM   #5
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We've got an oversupply of gasoline at the moment. Diesel supplies are around normal. Crude oil prices have been going up. Gasoline prices have been going up, but not as fast as crude. Diesel prices have been going up faster than crude oil.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

I think people are just taking profits where they can.

However, I don't know exactly why we have so much more gasoline than diesel.
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:40 AM   #6
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Can't help you. Works in Europe. Good day.
Lies! Lies and slander. Feed your children smog and grow strong hu-man!
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However, I don't know exactly why we have so much more gasoline than diesel.
The US is the world's largest consumer of oil, and due to the nature of it's fleet, gasoline. Since we're on the edge of a recession, more or less, demand for gasoline has dropped, and reserves have been increasing (under stocks) for the past few months. Otoh, since most of the price increases US consumers have seen is due to the weakness of the dollar, other parts of the world, such as the EU, can buy our diesel at greater rates, which lowers stocks and drives up the price of it here until refiners adjust to the change in demand via altering their crack spreads and a new equilibrium range is found based on the price of oil compared to the dollar index.
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:38 PM   #7
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Didn't read the link, did you?

Supply and demand have nothing to do with it.

The price disparity is entirely due to additional costs mandated by the ULSD regs. Supply can be tight or supply can be plentiful, but nobody sell diesel fuel at a loss, so the price has to go up.

Some people just cannot bring themselves to believe what monsters the EPA extremists are.
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Old 03-19-2008, 08:57 PM   #8
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Didn't read the link, did you?
Did you? You're wildly misrepresenting this study.

This was an EIA study on ULSD costs under various assumptions. The figures are the increase over the "reference" 500ppm diesel case. The "regulation" case assumes that the ULSD transition goes as smoothly as expected. The others are more pessimistic. They don't add together, in fact they already assume every case you list put together (except the 'no imports' case) in the 'severe' case at 8.4 cents. What you call 'imports not meeting spec' actually assumes zero ULSD imports. This was too over-the-top for them to include in the 'severe' case.

The worst they could think of was 8 cents, not 50. Seriously, just read appendix E. It lists absolute price estimates instead of differences from a base case. Note these are just prices... you still could add in the worst-case 4% efficiency you mentioned (only affecting new motors until they sort the tech out), plus at another 1.8% reduction in energy content.

Studies aside, ULSD clearly didn't cause the price increase. Look at the EIA's "This Week In Petroleum"... retail road diesel averaged $3.974 last week, but heating oil averaged $3.852. Heating oil isn't just high sulfur... it's not taxed! Wholesale is about 11 cents more for road diesel than heating oil. But it's always been more, due to cetane and so on. So don't blame the EPA. Blame the Chinese like everyone else.
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Old 03-20-2008, 09:38 AM   #9
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Every now and then I get a whiff of a pre-emission car that is still in running condition and I thank my parents and others that were of voting age back then (I was but 10 years old) that said enough and chose leaders that would institute and enforce cleaner air regulations.
I don't and won't stand for attempts at rolling back standards just to temporarily drop pump price by a penny or two until profit greed eats that up, leaving you and I with dirtier fuel, dirtier air, and the same pump price anyway.
If anyone likes sulfur dioxide and acid rain so much, I suggest you go eat a book of matches and wash it down with battery acid.
"Tonto" indeed...
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Old 03-21-2008, 04:02 PM   #10
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Lugnut posted?
??to temporarily drop pump price by a penny or two??

Dave says:
Its 70-90 cents a gallon and 4% reduction in diesel engine efficiency.

Nobody is talking about going back to 1970 regulations, just 2006. BTW, in its 2005 report to Congress, the EPA noted that air quality in the US is currently the best it has been in living memory.

As I asked someone somewhere else: What is the metric of the payoff of these regulations? Will it reduce nationwide SO2 and/or PM2.5 ambient concentrations by as much as one microgram per cubic meter? Will it result in lower cancer rates, or decreased asthma rates?

These regs appear to be like the ban on CFC?s - all pain and no gain.

I would ask Randy this: If they don?t add up, how do you explain the 70-90 cent per gallon price disparity between unleaded and diesel? We can lay the overall increase of both gas and diesel to the Chinese demand but that huge differential between gas and diesel is what I?m talking.
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Regeared to 3.08:1
4 inch suspension slam
Aero mods: "Fastback" fairing and rugged air dam and side skirts
Stock MPG: 19
Summer MPG: 27.0
Winter MPG: 24
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