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Old 11-17-2007, 10:10 PM   #1
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Risk assessment...

In light of the smoking thread, I was curious about how dangerous smoking was compared to second hand smoke exposure or significant exposure to diesel emissions. From here I read that the influence of second hand smoke isn't too bad compared to one pack a day, with someone consistently (I'm guessing.) exposed to second hand smoke have a 25% increased risk of lung cancer compared to the average, and someone who smokes on pack a day having a 2500% increased risk of lung cancer compared to the average. So, second hand smoke is more dangerous than air, in most places, but what's up with all those second hand smoke kills commercials I'm seeing? Are they valid, or are there greater threats when it comes to lung cancer? Well, I found this, and it seems like workers exposed to diesel had an inordinately high rate of lung cancer. If two pack a day smokers (Greater than 2500% increased risk/one pack a day) have a 1 in 7 chance of dying from lung cancer, and ~1 in 10 railway workers die from lung cancer, what are people who live in CA near the LA Harbor or by the trucking terminals in Riverside/San Bernardino having to deal with? It seems like the one liner about living in these areas being the equivalent to smoking about a pack per day has some merit. And everyone deals with it. What would a pack a day for their formative years do to a child?

So, given the seemingly high risk associated with diesel pollution in certain areas, why aren't I seeing commercials like this about diesel emissions run on LA tv stations? For that matter, how dangerous are the driving styles and auto choices of parents to their children? Is driving a lifted F350 spewing black smoke out the back worse than second hand smoke alone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
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I think if i could get that type of FE i would have no problem driving a dildo shaped car.
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Old 11-17-2007, 10:42 PM   #2
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Quote:
So, second hand smoke is more dangerous than air, in most places, but what's up with all those second hand smoke kills commercials I'm seeing? Are they valid...
Higher risk seems to make it closer to valid... It's just like MADD - drunk driving isn't anywhere near the leading cause of crashes or fatal crashes. But most of everyone has at least heard of it...

Quote:
what are people who live in CA near the LA Harbor or by the trucking terminals in Riverside/San Bernardino having to deal with?
I'll have to find the source again... But it was either 250,000 or 750,000 deaths per year in N. America as an indirect result of NOx emissions (indirect like cancer is to smoking).

I think the key difference is mentality. You can stop smoking. You can't stop your neighbor from idling his/her car for 10 minutes before leaving for work. And because so many people share this thought process, they don't see any harm in also idling their cars for 10 minutes before leaving for work.

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Is driving a lifted F350 spewing black smoke out the back worse than second hand smoke alone?
Possibly, it'd be a mighty powerful ad campaign if someone picked it up...

Does anyone else remember the "SUVs [and the oil they consume] supporting terrorism" ads several years ago?
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Old 11-17-2007, 11:00 PM   #3
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Higher risk seems to make it closer to valid... It's just like MADD - drunk driving isn't anywhere near the leading cause of crashes or fatal crashes. But most of everyone has at least heard of it...
Iono about that. Based on exposure it seems like second hand smoke is far less dangerous than diesel emissions. Otoh, supposedly akly is involved in a significant portion, maybe even the majority, or traffic fatalities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CDC
During 2005, 16,885 people in the U.S. died in alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes, representing 39% of all traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2006).
Everything I've read points to it being totally overblown. Anyway, post up that info amount NOx emissions when ya get it. I'd go look for it myself, but my old Uni finally got around to suspending my VPN access. *shakes fist*
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I think if i could get that type of FE i would have no problem driving a dildo shaped car.
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Old 11-17-2007, 11:30 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by omgwtfbyobbq View Post
Iono about that. Based on exposure it seems like second hand smoke is far less dangerous than diesel emissions. Otoh, supposedly akly is involved in a significant portion, maybe even the majority, or traffic fatalities.

Quote:
During 2005, 16,885 people in the U.S. died in alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes, representing 39% of all traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2006).
Everything I've read points to it being totally overblown. Anyway, post up that info amount NOx emissions when ya get it. I'd go look for it myself, but my old Uni finally got around to suspending my VPN access. *shakes fist*
Not overblown, it's just misrepresented... EDIT: I take it back, yes - leading (but not majority cause of fatal crashes). Leading cause of non fatal crashes is distraction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CDC
Nationwide in 2005, alcohol was present in 24 percent of the drivers involved in fatal crashes (BAC .01-.07, 4 percent; BAC .08 or greater, 20 percent).
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Yes, based on exposure - it looks like pollution is worse than second hand smoke... But that wouldn't change the risk looking at second hand smoking independently.

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I'll look more for the NOx paper tomorrow (the reason why I'm up late is now finished) - but I found this buried in my bookmarks (1100 premeature deaths as a result of In-use off-road diesel vehicles).
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ordiese...OverviewFS.pdf
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Old 11-17-2007, 11:50 PM   #5
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I say overblown from the perspective of commercials, not the actual risk, since that money could be spent combating a greater threat. Especially in high risk communities. And, since production is controlled, it's easier to regulate. I suppose the proof's in the pudding, since CARB hasn't done anything to regulate outdoor/private second hand smoke, but they are going after offroad/marine/trucking for diesel emissions based on the ~6,500 deaths and ~$7 billion in externalities per year in CA alone. Not only that, but my dirty diesel bunny is cleaner (per hp*hr) than even semis built according to the 07 standards IIRC, and the owners have the gall to complain, since they might have to meet emissions standards passenger vehicles had in the mid seventies with primitive 21st century technology....
*puts the keyboard down and steps away from the rant*

Edit- Oh yeah, majority vs leading, tomatoe tomato. Leading is what I meant, I swear.
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