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Old 02-01-2016, 10:30 PM   #1
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The Future of the Automobile Lecture

This YouTube lecture about the future of the automobile will either excite or scare you. What ever you do do NOT buy any new cars until all this plays out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k

What do you think?

Doug in Oakland, CA
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Old 02-02-2016, 10:57 AM   #2
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Wish I had a spare 40 minutes and enough phone battery to watch this. I'm sure it's interesting, I might have to save it for the weekend
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Old 02-02-2016, 12:44 PM   #3
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> > do NOT buy any new cars until all this plays out.
should read don't buy anything new for the rest of your life
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Old 02-02-2016, 03:02 PM   #4
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I took the time to watch it. I guess it's just one guys theory, one I can see a lot of holes in. Will be interesting to see if any of his predictions come true. You can already see a fast emerging car market in parts of Europe, places like Norway that get almost 100% of thier energy from "clean" sources, mainly hydro, tidal and wind, it's no coincidence they have the largest share of electric cars there already. The UK is also a World leader in the uptake of electric cars.

One thing I don't get is why he compares solar to the other energy sources but not wind/hydro/tidal? He doesn't mention them at all and yet they are one of the most commonly used ways of producing energy in the World?

I can see the autonomous driving aspect being popular in vast open places like the US where driving is very tedious and boring, but in the UK it will take a long time to ween people away from driving. The UK has an extensive motorsport heritage and history and there are probably more car/driving enthusiasts here than anywhere in the world. I think it's an excellent idea for people over the age of 70 though, whose decision making ability and reaction times are probably not as quick as they once were.

I guess the speed of the disruption will also depend a lot on how much governments will be willing to invest on the infrastructure, only 4% of the UK is built on, so for most people living rural, myself included, an electric car is still a silly idea as I would barely make it to my nearest charge point. He also talks about an average 200 mile range too, I think it will take a lot more than that to convince people they're a good idea, some cars here have a 1000 mile range. Even comparing direct costs, the convenience of only filling up once is almost worth it.

Interesting theory though.
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Old 02-02-2016, 03:56 PM   #5
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Interesting video, thanks for sharing. Here is a shorter video about electric cars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9m9WDxmSN8
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:58 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draigflag View Post
I took the time to watch it. I guess it's just one guys theory, one I can see a lot of holes in. Will be interesting to see if any of his predictions come true. You can already see a fast emerging car market in parts of Europe, places like Norway that get almost 100% of thier energy from "clean" sources, mainly hydro, tidal and wind, it's no coincidence they have the largest share of electric cars there already. The UK is also a World leader in the uptake of electric cars.

One thing I don't get is why he compares solar to the other energy sources but not wind/hydro/tidal? He doesn't mention them at all and yet they are one of the most commonly used ways of producing energy in the World?
There is also geothermal.

Quote:
I can see the autonomous driving aspect being popular in vast open places like the US where driving is very tedious and boring, but in the UK it will take a long time to ween people away from driving. The UK has an extensive motorsport heritage and history and there are probably more car/driving enthusiasts here than anywhere in the world. I think it's an excellent idea for people over the age of 70 though, whose decision making ability and reaction times are probably not as quick as they once were.
You also have better public transit in general than the US. So the need for a private car for basic transport is lower.

Quote:
I guess the speed of the disruption will also depend a lot on how much governments will be willing to invest on the infrastructure, only 4% of the UK is built on, so for most people living rural, myself included, an electric car is still a silly idea as I would barely make it to my nearest charge point. He also talks about an average 200 mile range too, I think it will take a lot more than that to convince people they're a good idea, some cars here have a 1000 mile range. Even comparing direct costs, the convenience of only filling up once is almost worth it.

Interesting theory though.
I've heard that while 100 years is a long time in the US, a 100 miles is a long distance in the UK.

ICE cars have a much longer range, but refueling requires a stop at a station during the daily commute or as part of other errands. When it sinks into the public consciousness that plugging a car in every day like their phone is less hassle and time than stopping for fuel, they'll see that 200 to 300 miles is more than enough range for a BEV.

The original Audi A1 E-tron plug in hybrid was designed with Europe in mind where the populations aren't as spread out as in the US. It had an EV range of about 30 miles, which cover the large majority, if not all, daily miles driven. Then it go about 130 miles in hybrid mode on a tank of gas to cover the distance between cities.

The BMW i3 REX is a slight deviation on that thinking. Having a longer EV range than that A1, it doesn't have to carry as much fuel to cover a typical long car trip in Europe.
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Old 02-04-2016, 06:24 AM   #7
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Tony Seba synopsis on future technology:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmnSFdk5ISg
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Old 02-04-2016, 06:33 AM   #8
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Tony Seba left out one other important source of energy: Pole Dancers

For the benefit of all mankind, I recommend we find a way to tap that source of energy.
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Old 02-13-2016, 09:29 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Draigflag View Post
I took the time to watch it. I guess it's just one guys theory, one I can see a lot of holes in. Will be interesting to see if any of his predictions come true. You can already see a fast emerging car market in parts of Europe, places like Norway that get almost 100% of thier energy from "clean" sources, mainly hydro, tidal and wind, it's no coincidence they have the largest share of electric cars there already. The UK is also a World leader in the uptake of electric cars.

One thing I don't get is why he compares solar to the other energy sources but not wind/hydro/tidal? He doesn't mention them at all and yet they are one of the most commonly used ways of producing energy in the World?
DraigFlag, it seems you answer your own doubt "...if if any of his predictions come true." when you cite the popular rise of electric cars in Norway and the UK.

I think Seba is holds solar power out as an example, because of the exponential drop in annual solar panel costs as well as the exponential rise in solar panel efficiency, which the other verticals can't claim.
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Old 02-13-2016, 09:55 AM   #10
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I think everyone should have solar panels on thier roofs regardless of where they live, even in not very sunny places like the UK, there would still be times they could be beneficial. My friend had some installed some 17 years ago, but they weren't doing a very good job, she had them removed a year or two ago.

There was a household in the South of Wales who just fitted a Tesla home battery so they can now store excess energy, be it via wind, solar etc. Up until now, you could only sell excess electric back to the government, if you made enough you could break even with your bills. But this is a better idea, to store it and use it when you need to, especially if you had an electric car. Will be interesting to see thier results.

Our government is weird, they are investing billions in a carbon neutral society, and yet they are cutting the electric car grants by 50% and raising road tax to a flat rate for all cars (used to be an incentive to buy a smaller more efficient car with cheaper tax) plenty of idiots running our country...
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