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Old 05-28-2008, 06:47 AM   #71
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That's an interesting take on it. So the others that are doing the same are going to get invaded by the US?
And the fact that you completely ignored the evidence of the two interviews I linked to is interesting too.

I think a bombing campaign against Iran is in the works, we simply lack the boots on the ground to physically invade anyone more for the foreseeable future.

Since Iraq is the second largest reserve of sweet crude in the world after Saudi Arabia then controlling Iraq is tantamount to controlling a big chunk of the sweet crude reserves. The Coalition Provisional Authority under L Paul Bremer wrote sweetheart deals into Iraqi law for American oil companies..

Unless you have been paying extremely close attention to news sources other than the mainstream American media much of what is happing will be beyond your ken.




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I'm sure they have some control, but are they the sole arbiter of price? It would be interesting if you expounded on your comment by explaining how oil companies can do this.
I never said the oil companies are the *sole* arbiters of price, only that thinking they have little control is naive.

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Indeed. However everybody seems to think that there is a free lunch when it comes to energy. These facilities have to be physically located somewhere.
I suggest we put the next refinery in *your* back yard then..



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Exactly. Oil is by far the most energy dense material we can use for our energy needs. Bear in mind, though, that as oil prices continue to go up, people will seek alternatives and hopefully we'll weane ourselves from oil. It will be a long, painful, complicated process, though.
In the long term and maybe even in the shorter term as well, potable water is going to end up being a bigger problem than energy.. Humans can live without oil, without water, not so much.

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Interesting to hear this as the reports I've heard indicate that there is in fact a refinery capacity issue. Please explain in more detail.
Actual, you know, shortages would indicate a lack of capacity.. If you are aware of shortages I'd be interested to hear of them.
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Old 05-28-2008, 07:00 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by fumesucker View Post
And the fact that you completely ignored the evidence of the two interviews I linked to is interesting too.
No need to be pissy about it, I didn't have the time when I posted my response.

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Since Iraq is the second largest reserve of sweet crude in the world after Saudi Arabia then controlling Iraq is tantamount to controlling a big chunk of the sweet crude reserves. The Coalition Provisional Authority under L Paul Bremer wrote sweetheart deals into Iraqi law for American oil companies..
Indeed, thus my question about why we're not pumping it and bringing it back home.

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I never said the oil companies are the *sole* arbiters of price, only that thinking they have little control is naive.
OK, I'll bite. How much control do they have, I mean other than holding back their ships, their refineries, fiddling with pipelines, and perhaps bribing traders to speculate?


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I suggest we put the next refinery in *your* back yard then..
Sure. And I'll admit that I'd fight it or move. However, something will have to be done sooner or later, no? Or our economy will suffer. There is no free lunch.

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In the long term and maybe even in the shorter term as well, potable water is going to end up being a bigger problem than energy.. Humans can live without oil, without water, not so much.
Well, I guess it depends on what kinds of terms you want to put it on. If oil were shutoff today, what would the effect be on our standard of living? How many people would starve due to economic collapse and resultant lack of food, water, and medicine?

OTOH when you think about this in the broad context of history and human survival, yes, you are correct.

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Actual, you know, shortages would indicate a lack of capacity.. If you are aware of shortages I'd be interested to hear of them.
As I am not an oil professional like you, I can only discuss what I hear and read in various media outlets. After Katrina, there were discussions of refinining capacity issues. I'd say it was obvious that there are no shortages, however that information doesn't tell me if the refineries are at 80% capacity or 99%.
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Old 05-28-2008, 07:07 AM   #73
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And the fact that you completely ignored the evidence of the two interviews I linked to is interesting too.
OK, so I watched the clips. What's your point?

IMO, the war in Iraq was about oil from the start - countries fight wars for resources, this is no different in that regard. Furthermore, our economy is built on oil, so establishing permanent bases in that part of the world makes complete sense in order to protect our oil supply. Quagmire or not, we'll be in Iraq for another 30 years, manning the permanent facilities built by Bechtel, etc., to ensure continuous oil supplies as long as the reserves will last.

Since you are the one with experience in the oil industry, what is your take on it? Why don't you think that pumping oil from Iraq was "part of the plan?" IMO it was part of the plan from the outset. What are you trying to tell me that I'm missing?
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Old 05-28-2008, 07:34 AM   #74
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Here's the key point on the supply issue that I have yet to see anybody address: Is it a shortage of refineable crude, a shortage of refining capacity, or a deliberate shortage of production?

My money is on the third option, with oil investors that are in-the-know making a killing on crude speculation until an outside force puts a stop to it. Who should that outside force be? While I think that Congress could do something about it, the ultimate responsibility rests with us as the consumers.

Our government is little better than total chaos most of the time, so don't rely on it to make your life better. They can, but ultimately, every one of us must do what we can in our own best interest eventually.

While I think the profits of oil companies are routinely disgusting, we don't complain about it. We simply consume less, and we are continuing to work toward that end. Sadly, with some exceptions, we are surrounded by millions who would rather complain than actually do something about it.

The Amish get by just fine without oil for getting around. (Though many have chosen to utilize tractors for farming.) I would not advocate for 100% elimination of fossil fuel use, but clearly the vast majority of us use far more than necessary.
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Old 05-28-2008, 08:02 AM   #75
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Since you are the one with experience in the oil industry, what is your take on it? Why don't you think that pumping oil from Iraq was "part of the plan?" IMO it was part of the plan from the outset. What are you trying to tell me that I'm missing?
It's clear that the planners knew Iraq would be in chaos for the forseeable future and that ramping up oil production would be extremely difficult at best. In that scenario the simplest explanation would be that pumping oil was not part of the plan. Ockham's Razor leads us to think that the simplest explanation is the most likely to be correct.

Oil is a fungible commodity, with Iraqi oil essentially out of reach for the present that makes other oil that can be reached more valuable. The results of this strategy are clearly evident, indeed they are at least part of the raison d'etre of this thread. We have an oilman as vice president and an oilman as president and oil prices and oil company profits are at an all time high.

It's a case of the oilmen having their cake and eating it too, the oil that can be reached now becomes more valuable by curtailing Iraqi production and the oil under Iraq will be the property of the American oil companies and its future value is enormous and incalculable.
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Old 05-28-2008, 08:12 AM   #76
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O man, drove down to Atlanta, GA on July 4th weekend and took MARTA to an event I was going to. Then I was going to go to a family reunion. The Bus got me there on secudual, but the bus was 45 minutes late, rode the bus to the end of the line, had to wait another 30 min while the driver took a ((*&*&^ break and then finally got back to the train station, which was late also. Never made it to the family reunion.

Just recently a few weekends ago, I tried the train again, to simply walk to my destination. The train sat for a good 20+ min at the end of the line. This is not counting the wait time for the train itself.

Time, its non replenishable. I will now just drive to my destination on a rare jaunt down to Atlanta for now on. By the time I use the so called public transit on the weekend I can be where I was going and back home again on the same amount of change. Its just not worth the frustration.
Tell me about it. MARTA is a *****, and that's even after considering Atlanta traffic. It might be worth it if public transit were free.
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Old 05-28-2008, 08:19 AM   #77
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That's the bottom line. The cost of fuel is NOT going to go down by any significant amount any time soon - if at all.
Right, but that doesn't do those of us who have to have a reliable vehicle any justice. Especially those who can't afford a Prius.

I have a make a 320 mile trip between my university and home 4 or 5 times a year in both directions. Sure I could try to make it out there with the Geo (we actually had to get another one, the last one blew up), but driving a 15 year old car with 180,000 miles on it just isn't a very intelligent decision.

That said, I'm not going to complain too much. I think my car is a diamond in the rough. It was free, and cost 1k to fix. On the downside it costs too much to fill up to actually test the mileage regularly.
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Old 05-28-2008, 12:03 PM   #78
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I have a make a 320 mile trip between my university and home 4 or 5 times a year in both directions. Sure I could try to make it out there with the Geo (we actually had to get another one, the last one blew up), but driving a 15 year old car with 180,000 miles on it just isn't a very intelligent decision.
Up until a fairly recent job change my wife was doing 320 miles every two or three days. She is a district manager for a retail chain and driving to the different stores under her control at least once a week.

Her last car, a 93 Infiniti G20, we finally retired at 15 years and 310,000 miles, everything on the car still worked perfectly except the crankshaft pulley on the front of the engine came loose and ruined the end of the crankshaft.

The better Japanese cars in particular, if they are properly cared for, will go well over 200,000 miles with few problems. Avoid automatic transmissions and they have even fewer problems.. I

It doesn't take too many new car payments to make even a fairly hefty repair bill on an older car and new car payments go on roughly *forever*..
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89 Yamaha FZR400 Crotch rocket, semi naked with only the bikini fairing, no lowers, 60 plus mpg

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Old 05-28-2008, 01:00 PM   #79
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Since oil is a commodity whose price is controlled by world markets, why would you expect domestic drilling to bring prices down? The oil companies would pump it out of the ground and then sell it for 120+ bux per barrel and continue to make huge profits. Also, since the US pretty ,uch owns Iraq - that has some of the largest oil reserves in the world - why aren't we pumping that stuff out of the ground as quickly as possible??

Furthermore, as the oil companies are largely vertically-integrated enterprises, why is it so bad that they are making profits when they largely do not control prices?

Lastly, I'm not sure the alternatives will materialize in time to have any affect. The environmentalists have largely tied the hand of politicians to make deals that end up in new nuke plants, oil refineries, etc. There is plenty of blame to go around.
good post, but i, for one, do not criticize oil profit. just responding to the notion that oil profit is inflated(so what about other industries right?).

as far as drilling goes, some experts believe increased supply would lower the prices especially if you could put refineries near the drilling. but as you said about new tech, this(new drilling/refineries) too will take time.

but failing to plan IS absolutely planning to fail!
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Old 05-28-2008, 01:11 PM   #80
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Our government is little better than total chaos most of the time, so don't rely on it to make your life better. They can, but ultimately, every one of us must do what we can in our own best interest eventually.
WOW! if one took this out of context, it sounds as tho it could have come from a conservative.

in the words of Andy Taylor(Griffith), "couldn't HEP it, couldn't Hep it!"
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