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Old 12-04-2017, 10:25 PM   #41
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When I was shopping for my current car (late 2014, early 2015), I compared the Audi Q5 Hybrid with 2.0L gasoline engine against the Audi Q5 3.0L Diesel. The diesel's purchase price was lower, and it got better fuel economy in mixed and highway driving, and only slightly worse in pure city driving.

I mention this because in this specific example of comparing the same vehicle with only the drivetrain being different (3.0 L V6 diesel vs 2.0L gasoline/electric hybrid), the cost of diesel, including all the extra plumbing for the DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) and DEF (Diesel Exhaust Fluid injection system) was still less expensive than a Hybrid.

So if HCCI engines approach the selling price of diesel, the'll still be cheaper than the price of a hybrid, but costlier than the price of an ordinary gasoline engine. HCCI better deliver the alleged benefits to pay off the price difference. Data shows that the premium for a hybrid is typically never recovered in fuel savings. The price of the diesel engine option is. My calculations say I'll pay off my CAD$5,000 diesel engine premium (over the price of a 2.0L gasoline engine) between 5.1 to 5.5 years of driving. After that, I'll save about CAD$1,000 a year in fuel bills (compared to the 2.0L gasoline engine).

I look forward to learning what HCCI does in the real world!
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Old 12-05-2017, 03:45 AM   #42
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https://www.greencarreports.com/news...d-what-it-took

Here is the scenario at 90k miles for an electric car. Basically it's value is nothing when you have to spend $6k to replace the battery. They calculated the replacement cost at 13 cents a mile, but the depreciation is at least 33 cents a mile on top of that. Add fuel cost, insurance, tags and taxes and you are at the same amount the US govt allows for depreciation, say $50k to drive 90k miles.

Compared to the Mirage, it's still twice as much. Compared to a decent and fairly efficient used car like the Echo, maybe 1/4 the cost. In the meantime the owners of the Leaf had to suffer with range degradation down to 35 miles, while either of the ICE options give me unlimited range and serve as both local and highway transportation solutions.

Counting beans is not interesting, it's not an argument and it is generally a thankless job. People see no glamour in counting beans, but if you don't count the beans, you run out of beans and then you are SOL.

It will be some time before electric replaces ICE, but in my opinion, the current battery chemistry needs to become at least twice as energy dense, while costing at least 50% less for the bean counting to come close and that's comparing new purchases. A 1200 pound battery that is 25% of the weight of a new car, with a 200 mile range, with a replacement costing say $15k before 100 k miles just wont cut it for those who practice the thankless bean counting function.

Now double or even triple the cost of fuel and you are there or close to it. Add in govt incentives and you may bridge the gap, but it will still be the realm of the wealthy and the older the electric car gets, the closer it gets to the point where you must replace the battery. That is the point where the residual value is 0 and the value of the used parts is basically 0 as well since every example will be facing the same point in the life of the vehicle.

Lease it, sure, buy it nope. I can buy a used Leaf with 27k miles for $7500, but it still means at 90 k miles, I face the same scenario as the owners linked above. The rationale of 0 maintenance, to me, doesn't hold up when you consider the battery replacement cost.

You can follow two paths to adoption of electric vehicles. Make it too expensive to drive ICE and destroy the whole used car market in the process or allow the competition to do the job for you, while not making many potential vehicle owners never have the opportunity to enter the ownership scenario with the benefits of personal transportation as far as income potential.

I see the process as fairly gradual, with that changing in increments. Others predict the virtually immediate change, but that requires many who now have transportation to no longer have that option and that will perpetuate a significant amount of global poverty again in my opinion.
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Old 12-05-2017, 07:56 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveMak View Post
I mention this because in this specific example of comparing the same vehicle with only the drivetrain being different (3.0 L V6 diesel vs 2.0L gasoline/electric hybrid), the cost of diesel, including all the extra plumbing for the DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) and DEF (Diesel Exhaust Fluid injection system) was still less expensive than a Hybrid.
As you state, this is a specific example, and it happens to be a poor one for your argument. VW had overpriced their hybrid offerings in North America. Only offering them in a fully loaded version while everybody else was bringing their hybrid costs down. The Jetta hybrid, before being cancelled, was over $30k. You could get the Volt for about $2500 more by list price. The Prius starts at $24k.

The new Camry LE hybrid is $3800 more than the ICE version, and averages 14 to 23 MPG more in the EPA ratings. The hybrid premium for the Rav4 is under $3000. Pay back time is still up there, but just using less gas is enough for some, and they are cleaner than a gasoline car, let alone a diesel.

I'd love to try a diesel, but the higher fuel prices mean that I'll likely just break even at best, or covering the cost difference for the car over decades through fuel savings.

I hope Mazda's HCCI pans out, but it sounds too good to be true to me at this point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by R.I.D.E. View Post
https://www.greencarreports.com/news...d-what-it-took

Here is the scenario at 90k miles for an electric car. Basically it's value is nothing when you have to spend $6k to replace the battery. They calculated the replacement cost at 13 cents a mile, but the depreciation is at least 33 cents a mile on top of that. Add fuel cost, insurance, tags and taxes and you are at the same amount the US govt allows for depreciation, say $50k to drive 90k miles.
Plug in car depreciation is hard to pin down. It's steep calculating off the MSRP, but is that a true representation of it when state and federal incentives can be reducing the cost for new by $10 or more?

The total cost to own a BEV might equal that of an equivalent ICE car in the near future. I don't see the masses flocking to electric, because the BEV has a higher sticker price, and people are wary of the battery life. But we don't need to have everyone in a plug in for them to have an impact.
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Old 12-05-2017, 09:24 AM   #44
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As mentioned endless times before, the "cost" factors of EV'S will vary depending on your geographical location. As you saw in my other topic, an equivalent hybrid will cost slightly more than a comparative sized/performing EV over 3 years, even with battery leasing costs. Fuel is cheap in the US, here it is the two or three times more expensive that you talk of. A new battery is about 50% cheaper currently than the fuel cost in my car over 100,000 miles, assuming fuel costs don't rise, which they will. In Norway now, the EV V's ICE market is almost 50/50.

Yes the Mirage is cheap to buy and run, but as mentioned before, they really are the only plus points (sorry) in every other aspect, it's quite horrendous, a compromise too far for most.
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Old 12-05-2017, 09:51 AM   #45
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Manufacturers warrant their EV batteries for 100,000 miles - but that is a conservative, bean counter number. Most user of high mileage Teslas are still seeing 90% capacity after reaching 6 figure mileages. One is reported as doing 200,000 miles and only dropping 6%.
Yes, some EV batteries will fail before 100,000 miles - but some ICEs give up the ghost by that mileage too.
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Old 12-05-2017, 11:00 AM   #46
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As you state, this is a specific example, and it happens to be a poor one for your argument...The Jetta hybrid, before being cancelled, was over $30k. You could get the Volt for about $2500 more by list price. The Prius starts at $24k...
The point I'm making, which your post does not address: Is the claim that the pollution control devices required by a diesel make it more expensive than a hybrid.

The only way to make a comparison to see if that statement is true, is to test it in an "apples to apples" comparison: look at one specific vehicle that's available in diesel and hybrid variants (like the 2015 Audi Q5 was), and see the difference in selling price between identically configured vehicle, with the only difference being the diesel drivetrain vs the gasoline/electric hybrid drivetrain. When I did this, I found that people's claims that diesel is more expensive that a hybrid just aren't true.

Mind you, if you compare "apples to oranges", that being one vehicle being a diesel and a completely different vehicle being a hybrid, then of course you can find wildly differing sticker prices. That's because there are many other differences, and not just the diesel vs hybrid drivetrain.

Historically, I have asked people if they know of any examples of an identical vehicle being available in both diesel and gas/electric hybrid configurations to make that direct comparison. That's when they dodge the question, deflect, and nitpick, rather than making that direct "apples to apples" comparison, as I did with the 2015 Q5.

NOTE: I'm not claiming that a gas/electric hybrid will always be more expensive than the identical vehicle configured with a diesel engine. I'm just saying I'm not aware of any examples in which the hybrid is cheaper when making that direct comparison.
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Old 12-05-2017, 03:12 PM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveMak View Post
The point I'm making, which your post does not address: Is the claim that the pollution control devices required by a diesel make it more expensive than a hybrid.
I don't think I have ever heard that claim. Though they do decrease the price gap.

Now the pollution control systems for a diesel can increase the operating costs from the the DEF, and possible increased maintenance. Then the higher price for diesel in the US will reduce the savings from the better fuel economy.

Hybrids on the other hand, reduce brake maintenance costs, and it is known that the battery in a Toyota hybrid can last 200 or even 300 thousand miles

Quote:
The only way to make a comparison to see if that statement is true, is to test it in an "apples to apples" comparison: look at one specific vehicle that's available in diesel and hybrid variants (like the 2015 Audi Q5 was), and see the difference in selling price between identically configured vehicle, with the only difference being the diesel drivetrain vs the gasoline/electric hybrid drivetrain. When I did this, I found that people's claims that diesel is more expensive that a hybrid just aren't true.

Mind you, if you compare "apples to oranges", that being one vehicle being a diesel and a completely different vehicle being a hybrid, then of course you can find wildly differing sticker prices. That's because there are many other differences, and not just the diesel vs hybrid drivetrain.

Historically, I have asked people if they know of any examples of an identical vehicle being available in both diesel and gas/electric hybrid configurations to make that direct comparison. That's when they dodge the question, deflect, and nitpick, rather than making that direct "apples to apples" comparison, as I did with the 2015 Q5.
That's because there aren't any models available in the US that have both a diesel and a hybrid. The only company that did, did so for a short time, which because of economics and marketing practices skewed the data against the hybrid, was VW.

They had a long history of making diesel cars, so it was an established technology for them. Their hybrids, on the other hand, were new, and like others did when they brought a new hybrid to market, it was only available in the higher trim. By that time, VW was finally offering the TDI in the lower trims, and for like to like, you need to account for the trim and equipment levels. It could be argued that VW's corporate culture was also anti-hybrid at the time, and the cheating made their diesels cheaper, but either way, the Jetta hybrid was the most expensive trim at the time.

But that fact is moot, because VW sells neither diesels nor hybrids in the US. Audi gets some plug in hybrids, and they got BEVs, but their plain hybrids are going to be 48 volt mild ones. We could look into European models for a diesel to hybrid comparison. The greater engine choices there will make like to like take a little more work, and import taxes and VAT need to be accounted for. Toyota is also getting out of the diesel business there.

Or we can wait for the diesel and hybrid F150 to come to market.

Otherwise that leaves us stuck with comparisons between models. The Cruze diesel is almost $4000 more than the mid trim gas model. Using the EPA's default settings for the comparison, it will also cost $50 more to fuel a year. That's with the advantage of 3 more gears on the automatic and auto start/stop. The diesel premium won't be recouped until the car is sold again.

The Prius Three(the mid trim) lists for about $500 more than the Cruze diesel. Cruze also comes in hatch if that matters. Using the same metrics as above, it will save $500 in fuel costs over the diesel Cruze per year.

NOTE: I'm not claiming that a gas/electric hybrid will always be more expensive than the identical vehicle configured with a diesel engine. I'm just saying I'm not aware of any examples in which the hybrid is cheaper when making that direct comparison.[/QUOTE]

On another note: have you gotten the emission fix yet?
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