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Old 06-12-2008, 07:08 PM   #1
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"There is no gas shortage".. Excellent article from Business Week

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyl...041_945564.htm

Gasoline reserves on hand are at the highest levels since the early 1990s, which is remarkable considering the nation's refineries have been cutting back on the production of gasoline because their margins have declined. In fact, average gasoline reserves on hand have risen since this past October, while oil reserves in this country have gone up virtually every week this year?and only fog in the Houston Ship Channel that kept oil tankers from unloading their crude one week kept it from being every week.

(...)

In January of this year, the U.S. used 4% less petroleum than we did a year ago. (Oil demand was down 3.2% in February.) Furthermore, demand has been falling slowly since July of last year. Ronald Bailey of Reason Online has pointed out that worldwide production of oil has risen 2.5% in the first quarter, while worldwide demand has grown by only 2%.

(...)

As for the speculators, in 2000 approximately $9 billion was invested in oil futures, while today that number has gone up to $250 billion. Now, if any publicly traded company had an additional $241 billion put into its stock in the same period, its stock would rise out of sight too?even if the company was not worth anywhere near that amount of market capitalization.
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Old 06-13-2008, 02:06 AM   #2
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Yep. I suspect smart speculators who saw the top of the housing bubble in 2005 started shifting their assets into commodities, especially oil. Welcome to the Oil Bubble!

I think by this time next year, it'll be trading at or below $60/barrel. Wonder how the powers that be will justify insane oil prices then?
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Old 06-13-2008, 04:27 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Glacial View Post
Yep. I suspect smart speculators who saw the top of the housing bubble in 2005 started shifting their assets into commodities, especially oil. Welcome to the Oil Bubble!
O when that Bubble burst, its going to be one heck of a mess. I'll be stocking up on the degreaser and absorb all.

Ok, even with increased world supply, there is no way this bubble will last. As much as members on this site dislike ethanal, when the cellulosic ethanol comes into full production with an E85 fleet and Europe, and Asia follows suit.......
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Old 06-13-2008, 04:56 AM   #4
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The bubble will burst when we drive vehicles that hypermile themselves. Alternative fuels will have a gradual impact, you won't change the energy delivery infrastructure quickly.

You can change the vehicular portion of the infrastructure in less than a decade. Christmas 08 when my IVT design has been prototyped and tested for efficiency will be when I know the true potential.

Things could get very interesting, when OPEC realizes they have priced themselves into a competitive energy supply situation instead of a monopoly.

Their response will be to cut prices, since prices are not related to costs of production.

It will be too late.

regards
gary
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Old 06-13-2008, 05:29 AM   #5
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You can change the vehicular portion of the infrastructure in less than a decade. Christmas 08 when my IVT design has been prototyped and tested for efficiency will be when I know the true potential.
I disagree, there are a great many people who cannot afford any car less than a decade old, I'm one of them at this juncture.

Quote:
Things could get very interesting, when OPEC realizes they have priced themselves into a competitive energy supply situation instead of a monopoly.
The whole point of the article is that it *isn't* OPEC who is driving up energy prices, OPEC is a consortium of suppliers, not speculators.

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Their response will be to cut prices, since prices are not related to costs of production.
OPEC is not really in control of the oil prices..

I wish you success with your hydraulic motor concept, the world could certainly use the increased efficiency such a device promises.
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Old 06-13-2008, 05:56 AM   #6
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So if OPEC has nothing to do with oil prices, why do the self-same producing countries start buying things like NASDAQ? Look at what the OPEC nations are buying up on the open market. It's everything but oil, publicly.

I have a sneaking suscpicion that they have figured out a way to insulate themselves many layers deep, and are taking their profits (which are nearly 100% as they actually are in the form of taxes) and speculating on oil futures. This has made oil more than double - more than doubling their profits - in just over a year. Reinvest until the world gets sick of it....live off the increased taxes on oil! Nice ponzi scheme that only works one way.
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Old 06-13-2008, 06:08 AM   #7
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If there is no oil shortage, then how can OPEC be responsible for driving up prices?

Diversification of investments is something that even beginning investors know about, OPEC is simply doing what every investment adviser on the freakin' planet advocates.

If you already have oil, investing all your money in oil is a fool's errand, just because people are not Americans does not make them stupid.
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Old 06-13-2008, 06:24 AM   #8
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How is it that a worldwide commodity - bought by people in all corners of the globe - have their prices set by OPEC rather than what the market will sustain? It doesn't make much sense to me that the OPEC guys are responsible for this lunacy.

Furthermore, if oil prices drop next year as drastically as some here have noted, then IMO all the alternative fuel initiatives will die on the vine - pretty much like they did in the 70s. The Government cannot force consumers to demand cars with higher efficiency. On the other hand, we have first-hand evidence from 2 oil crises that when oil prices become so high as to make consumers uncomfortable/unhappy, they will demand vehicles that have better effeciency. That demand will dry up if/when oil prices fall to $60/bbl.
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Old 06-13-2008, 07:58 AM   #9
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Check out the this opionion piece, i like the idea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...060503434.html
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Old 06-13-2008, 10:31 AM   #10
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Check out the this opionion piece, i like the idea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...060503434.html
Here's the problem with an energy tax like that: the Government will spend it. All. So the "refund" is really a big Government wealth redistribution project to "keep the money in the United States."

IMO that's not the Government's job.

BTW, in a few years - when every Chinaman has a car - gasoline will be 8 to 10 bux a gallon anyways, so why tax the everyliving crap out of it? Market pressures will force innovations in energy sources and efficiency.
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