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-   -   By 2035 a 200 mile range EV predicted to be $10k (http://www.fuelly.com/forums/f22/by-2035-a-200-mile-range-ev-predicted-to-be-10k-18579.html)

ChewChewTrain 04-28-2016 03:23 PM

By 2035 a 200 mile range EV predicted to be $10k
 
Next Big Future: By 2030 Electric Vehicles with a 200 mile range will be lower cost than the cheapest car sold in the US in 2015

Get ready. Here come the EVs! And, that means you, too, DraigFlag!

litesong 04-28-2016 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChewChewTrain (Post 188396)

Advancing battery tech will keep EV prices up....so will inflation. & if U.S. economics continue (& upper crust paper pushers & people shovers work to do such), the top 1 percenters will gather 100% of any monetary growth, as well has taking some of the reducing funds to worker bees.

In addition...The $14,000 lowest 2015 car price? I got a 100,000 mile warranteed 2016 Elantra for under $13,000, not even the cheapest car. Some people tracked down Chevy Sparks for under $10,000.

Draigflag 04-29-2016 03:55 AM

Not sure why it will take that long, Tesla already have that range so others will just follow suit shouldn't they? Sadly, electric cars currently only suit about 5% of car buyers, usually city dwellers where the charging infrastructure is better. As a result, depreciation is steep, I've seen some cars loose 4 A MILE ($5.60) in depreciation alone! I read that if your car does 53 MPG or less, you'll benefit financialy, but most cars do more than this now, even some large cars, once you've factored in battery lease which some manufacturers offer, electric cars can become very expensive products to buy and own.

OliverGT 04-29-2016 04:31 AM

We had a Renault Twizzy outside the office the other day for viewing. Bit like a Motorbike with 4 wheels.

Cost is about €10,000 which does not include Doors!
There is also a €50 Monthly Battery rental.
80kmh max speed
Room for a small passenger behind the driver, but don't go to Tesco for the "big" shop.

My old Peugeot Diesel, if I was just using it for work would have cost €38 per month. (600 miles at 76 MPG and €1.08 per litre)

So at the moment, they are not quite there yet.

I have no doubt there will be improvements and there will come a time when they are more practical.

I think Tesla have the right model, this is cutting edge technology, it is expensive, so make an expensive product and allow those with the financial ability to be the test pilots for the technology, this is how it works in a lot of other sectors.

The charging infrastructure needs to be in place as well, for example where I work there are some 3-400 parking spaces, most people leave their cars here for the whole day 6-8 hours, surely there is an argument to put in charging stations in these types of environments.

Oliver

LDB 05-01-2016 10:31 AM

I love my Prius, most of all for the solar roof option. I'm a low mileage driver with mostly short local hops. I'd have probably been better off in the long run with a Civic or Corolla at high 3x mpg than the Prius at 49 mpg with the several thousand dollar lower purchase price. But I wouldn't have the solar roof option and that trumps everything else. I will never have another car without it. As to the original prediction, I believe they may think that now and I believe when (if for some of us) we get to 2030 the price will be around 1.5 times what they predict now. Greed will take over and there you go.

Draigflag 05-01-2016 12:21 PM

The government is likely to be the main hold back on the uptake of electric cars, if everyone switched to an electric car here, they would loose a sickening 40,000,000,000 that's 40 UK billion, from fuel and road taxation. For a small island, that's a huge sum. How they are are going to tax the motorist of the future for profitable gains will be very difficult, although the most likely approach is some sort of monthly usage tax or the like, paid monthly straight to her Majesty and customs, which will likely cancel out any fuel savings for owners of electric cars.

trollbait 05-02-2016 05:48 AM

Tesla will go from $70k to $35k for a 200+ mile car in 6 years. The Model 3 is smaller, and won't go as far over 200 miles as the Model S, but a cheap BEV like the article is predicting will be similar in size to cheap ICE cars. Improvements in manufacturing and production scale is what is driving down the battery cost. Some advances might increase the per cell cost, but they will lead to needing less cells for the same amount of energy.

BEVs will never work for everyone. PHEVs might for most of the rest. Neither have to be the complete solution to fuel demand and pollution to have an impact.

Renault's battery lease only model is bonkers. It addresses the initial high price of a new BEV, but makes a mess of things for ownership past the original one.

Some states have tried passing extra taxes against electric cars, including non-plug in hybrids. It is mostly political scapegoating to allow the politicians to put off what actually needs to done, increase fuel taxes. Even the non-hybrid cars have been improving in fuel economy, and that is a bigger reason for lower fuel tax revenue than the few plug ins on the roads now.

When there are more plug ins on the road, there will need to be a way of taxing them fairly for road use. Oregon has an opt in test program for a mileage tax going on.

ChewChewTrain 05-04-2016 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draigflag (Post 188441)
The government is likely to be the main hold back on the uptake of electric cars, if everyone switched to an electric car here, they would loose a sickening 40,000,000,000 that's 40 UK billion, from fuel and road taxation. For a small island, that's a huge sum. How they are are going to tax the motorist of the future for profitable gains will be very difficult, although the most likely approach is some sort of monthly usage tax or the like, paid monthly straight to her Majesty and customs, which will likely cancel out any fuel savings for owners of electric cars.

Paul, the gov't will reclaim lost fuel taxes by having drivers report their odometer readings at yearly registration and then charging for each mile driven. That's assuming you will OWN a car.

I believe automobile ownership will become a thing of the past. Autonomous, self-driving cars will be a form of "transportation as a service", as is currently the trend in computer software being SaaS (Software as a Service).

With a smartphone app, you hail a taxi. The app will tell you to the exact minute when a self-driving car will arrive. You get in and enjoy your pint, while the car does all the driving and navigation.


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