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ChewChewTrain 01-28-2017 04:11 PM

What One Charge Driving Range Would Get You To Strongly Consider an EV?
 
200 miles on a single charge is mentioned as the driving range when many more people will start considering buying an EV.

I feel a 250-275 mile driving range on a single charge would be the sweet spot for me.

The furthest I might drive is Los Angles, which, in round numbers, is 400 miles from the San Francisco Bay Area.

Lithium batteries are happiest at an 80% charge. Half way to LA is 200 miles. 250 miles x 80% is 200. It would be reasonable to stop for 30 minutes midway to LA. That's how I arrived at 250 miles on a single charge would be my minimum. We're ALMOST there! With battery density improving reliably at 7% annually, I'd guess we're about 3 years away from that 250 mile EV.

So, what single charge driving range is good for you AND how did you arrive at that number?

R.I.D.E. 01-28-2017 04:39 PM

200 would work fine for me but my current 100k miles cost per mile is 20 cents @ mile.
I did the math before I got my Mirage and the higher property taxes and insurance on a Leaf selling for 20k would be more than my total fuel cost. At the current rate my fuel cost per 100k miles is $3500.
That does not even consider the cost of any replacement battery.
Total cost of ownership is my most basic criteria.

ChewChewTrain 01-28-2017 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by R.I.D.E. (Post 192641)
200 would work fine for me but my current 100k miles cost per mile is 20 cents @ mile.
I did the math before I got my Mirage and the higher property taxes and insurance on a Leaf selling for 20k would be more than my total fuel cost. At the current rate my fuel cost per 100k miles is $3500.
That does not even consider the cost of any replacement battery.
Total cost of ownership is my most basic criteria.

How do you calculate your cost of ownership, Gary?

R.I.D.E. 01-28-2017 05:09 PM

12.9 CPM for 100k miles purchase price including taxes and fees (total OTD)
3.5 cpm current fuel
3.6 cpm tags, property taxes, maintenance (do the labor myself)

That's figuring the residual value of the car at $0. Any residual value above that reduces the 3.6 cpm calculation listed above.

Draigflag 01-28-2017 05:10 PM

Coming from a car with 700-800 mile range, I'd definitely consider a 250-300 mile range EV. Had a spin in my friends Nissan leaf based van earlier today, she loves it, charges it at home in 3-4 hours. Only gets 70-90 miles per charge, but it's enough for an everyday commute to work etc. It's saving her litterly thousands a year.

The gti may be my last fossil fueled vehicle, I'm not sure yet, but in 3-5 years, I'm sure an EV will be an attractive buy, so long as performance is decent enough.

Draigflag 01-28-2017 05:13 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Took a picture of where the engine used to go in the "olden days" for you guys ;)

ChewChewTrain 01-28-2017 05:40 PM

Paul, if you suspect a low car battery, just like testing a 9 volt battery, try the tongue test.

SteveMak 01-29-2017 09:49 PM

For me, it's not just the "range anxiety." It's the total package, with all things considered. Some of the factors that I considered included:
  • Exterior and interior styling
  • Luxury
  • Form factor (e.g., SUV)
  • AWD
  • Features (e.g., I love keyless entry & start)
  • Acceleration
  • Initial purchase price
  • Fuel cost per mile (I consider amortized EV/Hyrbid battery life and cost in this)
  • Total cost of ownership
All things considered, I'm driving a 2015 Audi Q5 with 3.0L diesel. At the time, nothing else compared closely enough. I even considered the Q5 hybrid and declined, finding the diesel a better value.

LDB 01-29-2017 10:05 PM

I'd want 500 miles so that 80% would give me the 400 miles I'd need to go visit my daughter without having to charge along the way. Probably not too likely.

Draigflag 01-29-2017 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMak (Post 192657)
For me, it's not just the "range anxiety." It's the total package, with all things considered. Some of the factors that I considered included:
  • Exterior and interior styling
  • Luxury
  • Form factor (e.g., SUV)
  • AWD
  • Features (e.g., I love keyless entry & start)
  • Acceleration
  • Initial purchase price
  • Fuel cost per mile (I consider amortized EV/Hyrbid battery life and cost in this)
  • Total cost of ownership
All things considered, I'm driving a 2015 Audi Q5 with 3.0L diesel. At the time, nothing else compared closely enough. I even considered the Q5 hybrid and declined, finding the diesel a better value.

Tesla Model X would be perfect then, ticks all those and more. But the price....im assuming it's at least double/triple that of the Audi no doubt.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LDB (Post 192658)
I'd want 500 miles so that 80% would give me the 400 miles I'd need to go visit my daughter without having to charge along the way. Probably not too likely.

2 x 200 mile stints with a coffee/pee break in the middle? Would that work? A lot of the EV's coming out this year have around a 200 mile range.

LDB 01-30-2017 05:26 AM

It would depend on how long the break takes to fully recharge for the remainder of the trip. Currently it's a 15-20 minute break to fill the tank, make a pit stop and maybe get a soda. I imagine it would be multiples of that to recharge 200 miles worth.

Draigflag 01-30-2017 06:09 AM

Usually 25 minutes gets you 80% depending on the car, but with the new tech in development, it should be slashed to 15 minutes (the same tech that will let us charge a smart phone in 60 seconds)

LDB 01-30-2017 06:28 AM

I've got to stop buying cars but if I do buy another I may at least split the difference with a Volt or whatever is similar at that time that would take care of 9x% of my driving on battery power and for the rare road trip wouldn't be much different than now.

trollbait 01-30-2017 06:58 AM

Many BEVs have a buffer in the battery capacity. So the EPA ranges are for the car at around 80% charge. Tesla allows a range charge which uses all the batteries capacity that will exceed the EPA rating, but I don't think anybody else does.

SteveMak 01-30-2017 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draigflag (Post 192660)
Tesla Model X would be perfect then, ticks all those and more. But the price....I'm assuming it's at least double/triple that of the Audi no doubt...

The Tesla Model X? Perfect (except for the price)?
  • I dislike the exterior styling. It looks downright frumpy. I dislike the interior styling. Worst case of "just stick on an iPad" of any automaker.
  • Luxury? Seats that look and feel cheap. Misaligned body panels and doors.
  • Comes from a company that's infamous for having to replace 60% of Model S power trains before 60,000 miles. Yikes!
  • Form factor (e.g., SUV)? The back seats don't fold down. That's a big deal for someone (like me) who gets an SUV to actually haul stuff, like drums to a gig.
  • A purchase price that's more than double what I paid for my "perfect for me" Audi Q5 3.0L diesel SUV.
  • I kept my last car 18 years. What will it cost to replace the batteries, and how many time will I need to do that over the lifetime of my car? Unknown. BIG unknown. Expensive unknown
  • Which makes the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) a LOT higher than my current car!
While Tesla (the company) and Tesla owners rave about how perfect their vehicles are, clearly, they're for a more "specific" clientele who doesn't perceive these things as shortcomings or meaningful problems. I do.

ChewChewTrain 01-30-2017 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LDB (Post 192658)
I'd want 500 miles so that 80% would give me the 400 miles I'd need to go visit my daughter without having to charge along the way. Probably not too likely.

Ya never know! Elon Musk reports battery storage density is improving about 5-7% compounded annually.

As battery tech advances, electric cars will probably have fewer batteries to make a car more affordable before adding more batteries to achieve a 500 mile driving range on a single charge. But, ya never know!

ChewChewTrain 01-30-2017 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMak (Post 192672)
The Tesla Model X? Perfect (except for the price)?[LIST]
[*]Comes from a company that's infamous for having to replace 60% of Model S power trains before 60,000 miles. Yikes!

I see the glass as 1/2 full. Tesla should be FAMOUS for protecting their reputation, honoring their sales warranty, and replacing all the failed power trains.

This failure taught the Tesla engineering team a lesson that has surely been corrected.

Even GM, a hugely more experienced auto maker, had recent problems with something as simple as an ignition key switch.

Tesla is a pioneer in the electric car market. The definition of a pioneer is "one with an arrow in their back". For Elon Musk to have successfully navigated a minefield of startup business and engineering obstacles this far is a remarkable story of resilience and fortitude. We are witnessing a business case study that will likely be the subject of university business schools in future years.

Draigflag 01-30-2017 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMak (Post 192672)
The Tesla Model X? Perfect (except for the price)?
  • I dislike the exterior styling. It looks downright frumpy. I dislike the interior styling. Worst case of "just stick on an iPad" of any automaker.
  • Luxury? Seats that look and feel cheap. Misaligned body panels and doors.
  • Comes from a company that's infamous for having to replace 60% of Model S power trains before 60,000 miles. Yikes!
  • Form factor (e.g., SUV)? The back seats don't fold down. That's a big deal for someone (like me) who gets an SUV to actually haul stuff, like drums to a gig.
  • A purchase price that's more than double what I paid for my "perfect for me" Audi Q5 3.0L diesel SUV.
  • I kept my last car 18 years. What will it cost to replace the batteries, and how many time will I need to do that over the lifetime of my car? Unknown. BIG unknown. Expensive unknown
  • Which makes the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) a LOT higher than my current car!
While Tesla (the company) and Tesla owners rave about how perfect their vehicles are, clearly, they're for a more "specific" clientele who doesn't perceive these things as shortcomings or meaningful problems. I do.

Well there's only one Electric SUV currently in production, the Model X, so if it's not to your taste, that's fair enough. But the TCO is a bit of a grey area, i'm guessing it will overall be cheaper per mile than the Audi.

For example, if I assume a Leaf battery will do 150,000 miles (some have already and are still going) and needs replacing, it will currently cost about £5000. The fuel cost alone in my car would be nearly £25,000 for the same miles, so there's a £20,000 saving straight up. And chances are, you can just replace bad cells, which will be a few hundred, not thousand. And remember, price per KWH of batteries is falling, whilst capacity is increasing, so by the time it's due replacement, it will be a lot cheaper than todays prices.

My current car, the "whole life cost" is estimated to be £55,000!

ChewChewTrain 01-30-2017 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draigflag (Post 192650)
Took a picture of where the engine used to go in the "olden days" for you guys ;)

Paul, I forget. What's the reason for the standard car battery in an EV?

Draigflag 01-30-2017 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChewChewTrain (Post 192678)
Paul, I forget. What's the reason for the standard car battery in an EV?

I know very little about car electronics, but i'm assuming its to run lower voltage things like lights, heaters, window motors etc?

trollbait 01-30-2017 09:51 AM

Like hybrids, plug ins disconnect the traction pack when the car is shut down for safety issues. The 12 volt is for booting up the computer and flipping the switch on the traction pack.

The North American Niro and Ioniq won't have a 12 volt battery, but a portion of the traction battery set aside for 12 volt duties.

SteveMak 01-30-2017 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Draigflag (Post 192677)
...I'm guessing [the Tesla Model X] will overall be cheaper per mile than the Audi [Q5 diesel]...

I'm willing to gamble with your money ;-) I wasn't willing to gamble with mine. Especially when it means laying out double the money up front in the hope that maybe, someday, I'll break even or end up ahead. That, and considering the X doesn't meet my likes or needs on so many fronts, "not a contender" is the badge it earned in my comparison.

luv2spd 01-30-2017 01:30 PM

GM already made the EV car that I want. The problem is that they still haven't come down in price yet. You can buy a used Cadillac ELR for about $40,000 which is still a lot of money. I know new they were like $80,000 but still, $40,000 buys you a very nice car. You can only buy used because they don't make these anymore. I think it's one of the prettiest cars out there. The other problem with this car is that the second generation Volt costs the same money now as this used car, which is based on the 1st generation Volt.

Only 2,958 were made; 2,874 for the US and 84 for Canada. At least all the used ones are barely driven, which is great for me. This car is probably very quite and comfortable to drive, plus it looks gorgeous.

https://www.fuelly.com/attachments/fo...25b3f44e04.jpg

https://www.fuelly.com/attachments/fo...547d40cb8c.jpg

R.I.D.E. 01-30-2017 03:40 PM

I drove one, tried to get my 91 year old mother to buy one, Pop shut that idea down when he found out it was a gussied up volt.

ChewChewTrain 01-30-2017 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMak (Post 192657)
For me, it's not just the "range anxiety." It's the total package, with all things considered. Some of the factors that I considered included:[LIST][*]Exterior and interior styling

The Nissan Leaf has to be the fugliest. The ONLY good angle is from looking up at it, while it's on the garage service lift.


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