I Predict the First Wave of Chinese Cars in the USA will...
 

...be electric cars.

The Chinese communists recently mandated 8% of all Chinese car manufacturing to be EVs. This forces Chinese car industries to seriously innovate and find a way to sell affordable EVs.

This, in effect, puts China in the same position as the Japanese were in during the 1970 American gas crisis, where the US auto majors were caught with their pants down, while the Japanese grabbed huge US market share with their smaller, gas saving cars.

The Chinese EVs will use the same "playbook". The Chinese will introduce EVs into the US market with hard to resist offers. Again, catching GM, Ford, and Chrysler/Fiat flat footed, but this time with outdated ICE technology.

Thoughts?

Be prepared for the usual stereotyping Doug "Chinese products are poorly made and unsafe" even though that's far from the case, I'm sure there are those that still think that. The Chinese are way ahead with the EV market, they produce more EV's than any other country in the World.

They're mainly pushing on because of poor air quality and they've realised there's money to be made, it makes economic sense. They're not doing it to be "green" or to save the planet.

Volvo is a Chinese owned company and they have just announced, yesterday, that all new cars manufactured from 2019 will have an electric motor. There will be 5, fully electric vehicles, between 2019 and 2021, plus a range of hybrids. They will continue to manufacture ICE vehicles during the model lifetime.
Volvo goes electric across the board - BBC News

The Chinese car market does have a lower priority on safety. How well will they meet other markets' safety regulations is a question.

There's a big enough market in China anyway with like a third of the world's population, why would they even consider spending extra money on making the cars comply with other safety standards and exportation?

France has announced they will ban the sale of vehicles using petrol or diesel as a fuel, from 2040. Don't think I need worry about that!

Interesting. Thanks.

I suspect the bulk of the change from ICE to EV will happen way before that, like 2025.

I won't discount this idea.

However, if I believe both my father (who went to China multiple times over the last 15 years in multiple capacities in Silicon Valley business), and sources such as ADVChina, we're still looking at poor build quality and a stiff learning curve to be able to sell here.

That's if our Glorious Leader doesn't screw up the marketplace with mercantilism.

True. I'll be the first to agree with you.

But, Paul, There was a time when "Made in Japan" ALSO meant poorly made crap, too. Eventually the "Made in Japan" label turned around to become the most respected designers, engineers, and makers of electronics, cameras, and automobiles. Impressive for a people/society/civilization that was bombed nearly to the stoneage.

My point is that nothing remains static. People get older. Great Britain hasn't ruled the seas in centuries. And, Chinese manufacturers will progress.

For example, General Douglas MacArthur, upon the cease fire between the North and South Koreas said (paraphrasing) Koreans will NEVER amount to anything. Look at today's South Korea's industrial prowess and advanced society/culture. KPop anyone?

Yes. Nearly all Chinese products are crap. Huawei phones and Chuwi tablets are recent, notable exceptions. But to believe Chinese products will ALWAYS be crap is to bet that nothing changes. History says that is a bad bet.

When KIA and Hyundai first started selling in the UK, discerning motorists wouldn't touch them with a barge pole. But look at them now. Dacia is similar today. China, if they wish, will make the grade sooner or later.

Add Skoda to that list, they used to be the laughing stock of the auto industry, heated rear windows to keep your hands warm when you're pushing and other such jokes. VW turned them around, and now they've been voted the best cars for some 3 or 4 years running now.

What I have seen come out of China won't make the grade here. The reliability of cars is great today. Honda and Toyota used to have stellar reputations and the quality of alternators, starters, and other common electrical components has reached a peak that will be hard to maintain.

So far pushing 35k miles, my made in Thailand Mirage has held up great. Only exception is the carpet where my foot works the clutch, so I shaped piece of scrap aluminum and glued some carpet to it. No big deal I work the clutch a lot.

If the past is any test of quality and that's the only test, longevity and reliability, that really matters to the bean counters, the Chinese might want to focus on their own market. They already built an electric car, haven't heard much about it in years.

Last example of Chinese build quality was the blower motor resistor in my 99 Ranger. Original lasted 17 years. Built in China replacements lasted a couple of months. This is old tech mechanical switch with a couple of lengths of different resistance wires. When I sold the truck, I told the new owner it might be better to pay the 400% higher price for OEM. 3 replacements (stupid lifetime warranty)and it still only worked on high speed, dead connections in the replacement resistor. I joked that they needed to supply wing nuts with the parts so you didn't need tools to replace them.

I told my customers at my shop that if they bought a new car and went to local auto parts stores and bought everything they could get and replaced those parts on their new car it would never make it a week without a breakdown. Seen to many "I replaced the starter 4 times. Can you do a permanent repair please!!!!!"

"Sure put a factory rebuilt in there and if it fails in a year you get a free replacement" Ten years later they needed another one.

Its is partly due to the fact that all of their manufacturing infrastructure was destroyed. Think about it. At that time most of our factories were old and outdated. Brand new Fords were rolling off the very assembly line that made Model T's. All of Japan's factories were brand new and utilized the latest technology. This helped the Japanese do it better/cheaper.

Same goes with Germany. Their car industry boomed with all the new factories, while the British car industry died, mainly due to old factories and equipment.

Every cloud has a silver lining and all that...

The top selling EV in China outsold the Tesla Model S 10 times over in June last year.

As a smart fortwo knock off with a top speed of 50mph, I don't think Tesla is worried.
https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uplo...oco-yellow.jpg

China might have the strongest support for plug ins, which makes it easier for the market to support a wider selection.

True, although the 2nd best selling plug in that month is an suv with more than 500 bhp, so I wouldn't doubt thier ability at all.

https://i1.wp.com/carsalesbase.com/w...?fit=500%2C334

The issue is in the car's ability once made to meet other markets safety regulations.

I watch YouTube/ADVChina, too! I REALLY enjoy Winston's and Condensed Milk's , I think his name is Jeff or Mark, I forget, honest observations about China culture and customs.

Hmmm. Dacia? Wikipedia says Renault bought them in 1999. Renault and Nissan are sister companies. With Dacia being a "relative" of Renault and Nissan, it's no wonder Dacia up their game with some cross-company DNA sharing.

Dacia use mostly Renault parts, the Sandero is based on the old Clio, Renault's best selling car, so they're actually a lot better than the "Britain's cheapest car" label would suggest. I read somewhere Dacia were voted most reliable European car manufacture in 2011.

Yes, Dacia is there now, but they were not so hot when they first appeared on the UK scene.

Is the East German Trabant still around? I wonder if one of the major car makers could've ever saved that label. If so, can you imagine what a modern-day reinterpretation of that car would look like today?

I don't think paper mache passes the current crash tests.

LOL they reserve that kind of pollution for supertankers these days.

Considered quite "green" in its day, made from recycled plastic I believe. 2 stroke engine wasn't it?

I do like them. They can sound really, really negative about China, but they obviously have an affinity for it given that they're making their lives there. But it's so vastly different that I suppose it would be hard for any westerner to not be a little befuddled by those differences. What I really enjoy is just watching the scenery while they,re riding around, I'm always curious about what places really look like.

I actually haven't watched them in a while. Maybe I'll pick them up again when my current Penn and Teller's BS binge is out of my system.

Don'tcha mean every MUSHROOM cloud, Paul? ;)