Future Predicted Gas Prices
 

Anyone thinking about the price of gas as the Memorial Day holiday approaches?

I have seen it drop for the Holiday weekend in past years . . . maybe the oil companies are doing the patriotic thing - need to get gas some gas soon (for the weekend) and wondering if I should wait until the weekend or not.

I will not edit this post - look back to see if I'm right. Gas will continue to go up through about the 4th of July or so, definitely topping $4 in most of the country. It will start heading down until about the second week in November so that those currently in power can try to get re-elected.

Today is May 19, 2008. May 19, 2009 gasoline will be over $5 per gallon.

And the recession will hit in either April or October of 2009.

Depending on how you define "recession", it's already here..

The government has been playing so many games with the economic statistics for so long that government numbers are essentially useless for figuring out what is really going on with the economy.

We are very close to an economic "tipping point" where a lot of part time workers will find that it does not make economic sense to drive to their part time jobs.

If you are working and the exercise is a net money loss, then it does not make sense to continue to work at that job. $4.00 and above gas, combined with sub 20 mpg transportation and the long distances common in America will bring that economic point to many here in the near future if they are not at that point already.

I'm thinking that the ability to squeeze a lot more miles out of a gallon of gas may become quite valuable to many Americans soon.

i completely agree. $5/gal regular is not at all out of the question for summer of '09. i don't think prices will stop rising until we match what europe is paying (~$8+/gal).

Personally I don't think the world economy can sustain oil prices at this level indefinitely. IMHO the rise has happened to quickly and there's a bubble formed. I predict we see gasoline below the $3 mark again before the summer of 2009. India, Indonesia, and China have been subsidizing oil prices. Other countries have frozen the price of gasoline. They can't afford to continue to do that forever. When they stop, and gasoline goes through the roof in those countries, their economies will suffer significantly and demand for oil and gas will drop as it already is in the US and Canada. Thats when prices will come back down. I believe they will drop after the summer olympics when China cuts back on their subsidies but I'm not sure how much. It just depends on how long these governments can keep the price low in their countries.

On the news tonight highest was the Netherlands over $8 a gallon - Saudi Arabia $0.45 a gallon . . . yeah 45 cents a gallon!

Interesting how the price of Electricity has not gone up as much as gasoline . . . now if we were driving electric cars . . . hummmmm . . . .

In the website rhodeislandgasprices.com and other sites for the other states they have historical graphs of gas prices going back years and is seems to peak around May 25th then drop a little. Looks like buying a few 6 gallons cans full about a month ago was a good idea - would have paid for the gas cans by now almost.

Since we're now talking about current prices in other countries...I think it's 12 cents per gallon in Venezuela.

While that may be true, take into account what the economy is like over there to begin with. At $0.45 / gallon, it just might be equivelent to $3.00+ / gallon. 45 cents is little to us, but still worth quite alot elsewhere.

In Lima Peru in the summer of 2000 I believe, gas was a little over $1.00/liter (about $4.00/gal) That price for gas did not match the economic state of the country. BTW, where are you guys getting your figures for Saudi Arabia and Venezuela? I got my statistic from being in the country and remembering what it said at the gas station and then converting it from soles to dollars.

Vague memories of a recent post on another forum. Someone posted the 10 most expensive and 10 least expensive countries for gas as listed by a magazine article...

Ah, found it...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrol_prices

Some interesting entries:
Venezuela: 17 cents per gallon
Saudi Arabia: 45 cents per gallon as he reported
Iran: 41 cents
Turkmenistan: 29 cents
Kuwait: 78 cents
Nigeria: 38 cents

Mexico: $2.36/gallon

Israel: $7.20/gallon
Turkey: $10.13
Sierra Leone: $18.42

We have always been slow to react to economic changes here and abroad. Some good comes from a devalued US Dollar. We will start to make stuff ourselves again instead of importing. We will try to catch up to where we should have been now (we will still be behind by the time we catch up).

I doubt that fuel prices will return to under $3.00 per gallon...they will probably level out around $4.30 on the average by this time next year...unless something major happens to the oil supply. hopefully American Ingenutiy will step forward and start producing 35-40mpg vehicles right here...that would effectively cut fuel costs for most by 1/2.

I predict: Gasoline will be expensive. (But then, if it is more than 29.9 cents/gallon, it is expensive.)

I also predict: Whatever you pay will not reflect the true cost...

I hope so man. I live in Alberta (ya that Alberta with the 2nd most oil in the world). Gas is like $0.11 in Iran or some crap. How do they get away with that and we pay $1.23 a litre ($4.67 a U.S. gallon = 3.8L). We actually think a $4.00 gallon would be great.

I noticed that gas prices do seem to come down near election time. Also Aren't gas prices subsidized here too? including where the military is patrolling oil shipping routes etc, (bla bla... it gets political, which wars we are fighting whether or not they are for oil) https://www.energyandcapital.com/arti...-gas-crude/461
Gas is actually $10+ per gallon

Now lets say they moved real price of gasoline from taxing citizens, to the pump, People would have a CHOICE of how bad they need it. People who use little or no gas, wouldn't be paying for others gas. If you use an average amount of fuel, there'd be no differnce

Then again the government spends much more than it brings in, so that skews the numbers. On the other hand, some day the bills are going to come due... and somehow we'll have to pay for the stuff the government has paid for in past years and/or they have to cut what they spend. Donesn't make a bright looking future for the economy, or fuel prices, IMO.

Comment on delivering pizza's and newspapers: It isn't profitable long term. Short term making money is an illusion. You are basically borrowing money out of your car, and will have to pay much of it back because of vehicle expenses. I used to average a 1000 miles a week. Still... including maintenance, an old paid off truck with 13 MPG is more profitable than a 25 MPG car with payments. The car is devaluing much faster that is getting paid, yet still needs almost as much maintenance.

Meh... Think things are bad now?

Just wait.

https://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...835D9907945%7D

Scene 1: Numbers racket hiding behind Washington curtain
Opening shot: Phillips pulling back the curtain, exposing charlatan Wizards in a brilliant Harper's Magazine article: "Numbers Racket: Why the economy is worse than we know." Far worse. Buy it, read it -- this is essential reading if you really want to understand the depth of today's political as well as economic impending meltdown, and the harsh realities facing Washington, Wall Street, Corporate America, and Main Street in 2009 and beyond ... harsh because we cannot cover up the truth much longer.


Scene 2: Statistics, Washington's new WMDs, a time bomb
"If Washington's harping on weapons of mass destruction was essential to buoy public support for the invasion of Iraq, the use of deceptive statistics has played its own vital role in convincing many Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it really is. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy," especially three key numbers, CPI, GDP and monthly unemployment statistics.


Scene 3: Backflash, 'It's always the cover-up, stupid!'
As I read further I couldn't help but think about similar traps politicians get themselves (and us) into. Remember nice guys like Scooter Libby and Bill Clinton: The crime wasn't their original stupidity, but their lying during the cover-up. Here, Phillips reviews endless statistical cover-ups since the 1960s and concludes there was no "grand conspiracy, just accumulating opportunisms." I call it plain old greed. And every step of the way the media went along with the con game played by politicians and economists.


Scene 4: Real numbers torture us ... like water-boarding!
How bad is it? "The real numbers ... would be a face full of cold water," says Phillips. "Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today's U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9% and 12%; the inflation rate is as high as 7% or even 10%; economics growth since the recession of 2001 has been mediocre, despite the surge in wealth and incomes of the superrich, and we are falling back into recession."

Be afraid, be very afraid.

On politicians and gas prices, I always find it suspicious that on the "Gas price temperature map" at ontariogasprices.com that Ottawa always seems to have some of the lowest prices in Ontario, it's like they deliberately keep the "pump shock" as low as possible for our elected federal MPs.

or perhaps for the occasional late-nite delight.;)

I know the news is always doom and gloom but they were talking predicted gas prices to be $12 - $15 in the next year. Talk about throwing the country in a depression.

I blame environmentalists, for preventing drilling for oil on our own soil, making it so a new refinery hasn't been built in almost 30 years. Since 1982, refinery production has only risen about 20%. Not nearly enough to keep up with demand.

If we were allowed to drill off our own coast, (Like Russia, and China and many European countries are drilling of OUR coast, in neutral waters) we would see the price of oil drop.

It is very true that the price of oil (and gasoline) is not at all reflecting the free market value, and that's because it isn't a free market. The oil companies aren't allowed to increase production capacity in order to meet demand.

The current congress has passed far too many laws regarding the whole "global warming" scam.** The drive to keep the barren wasteland of ANWAR from having an oil well site, to keep the vast ocean off the east coast from having another oil platform, also the drive to switch to Ethanol, which is completely useless as a fuel.
It requires 30% more energy to produce a gallon of ethanol than the gallon of ethanol contains. It is an unsustainable net loss. The drive to ethanol is also quite nearly single handedly responsible for the world food crisis, as it skyrocketed the price of corn, and when food demands switched to other grains, it drove those prices up as well. The environmentalists have caused food riots around the world. Corn is a wonderful source of food, but a horrid source of fuel.

There is also the bubble going on with oil investors. So many people who used to not be in the oil market are buying and investing in oil, speculating. They're buying so much oil, and therefore driving the cost of oil up. Playing the oil market like the stock market. The speculating has caused a massive bubble, that is unsustainable. Eventually this bubble will burst, and there will be a "crash" of the oil market, much to the consumer's delight.

So you can thank the current oil prices both on a paranoid, environmentalist congress, and eager young stock brokers hoping to make more money.

And no, it's not Bush's fault. The president doesn't have that much power.



**I dare you to find a study showing that global warming is man made that takes into account both water vapor (Which is responsible for about 95% of the greenhouse effect) and the variable energy output of the sun.

Biffmeistro, I agree on the oil prices and global warming, and the president (any president) not having that much power. In addition to the things you mentioned about global warming, there's also the earth's natural micro and macro climate cycles, and natural variations. I think people who believe that humans have had that much effect on the world are pretty full of themselves...we're just not that powerful. As well, we're pretty clean in the US, but we have no control over what's going on elsewhere; and you can bet that huge portions of the rest of the world are making a terrible mess.

I disagree about the food, though. While corn is certainly NOT optimal for fuel production, at least the way it's done now, it's not to blame for food prices. Energy prices are to blame for food prices. I've discussed this at length with actual corn farmers, and they have discussed it at length with others in the industry; and other sources agree -- corn just doesn't have that much effect on food prices. OTOH, energy does. Also, is it better to pay the farmers to make ethanol corn, or to pay them subsidies to prevent them from growing too much and oversaturating the food market?

I, personally, suspect that these are more realistic: fuels from the waste stream (WVO and biodiesel made from WVO; ethanol/biodiesel from biological industrial/agricultural waste; ethanol/biodiesel from algae sewage treatment -- see the algae fuel thread for that, they're actually doing it in New Zealand); fuels that are not necessarily energy sources (again with the ethanol, as well as maybe hydrogen for internal combustion engines) that can use any energy source (which can be centrally controlled to be renewable or not); and finally fuels like biodiesel/ethanol made from more appropriate crops (sugar cane, sugar beets, whole corn plants instead of just kernels, etc). I also think existing fossil fuels should NOT be used for central power generation (electricity); instead, they should all be converted for use in gas/diesel engines. The technology exists and is feasible to do so, even coal can be made reasonably into gasoline. Central power should be something renewable, since it's much easier to build a few big expensive power plants with new technology than hundreds of millions of cars with new technology. I just don't want to have to stop driving internal combustion powered vehicles if the dinosaur juice really does run out.

Biffmeistro

Nice post, I agree with all your points. Do you have a prediction for future gas prices? Maybe I missed it.

THANK YOU. someone IS paying attention. we have 5% of the world's population and we consume 25% of the world's oil. hmmm...

BTW, something about GW i hadn't heard until recently...the moon is moving away from the earth affecting ocean waters AND global temps.

wouldn't be a suprise if the left tries to pin THAT one on Bush as well, along w/ fuel prices, the economy, katrina, and whatever else the haters push for.

As I figured the gas prices have stabilized even though crude went to 135 a barrel today. If any of you think that by us humans burning all the fuel that we burn does not affect the atmosphere then I suggest you park your car in a garage with the motor running for a little while and then come back and tell us what you find.

Trying to use that sort of an argument is like trying to say if everyone in the world dumped a bottle of food coloring in the ocean that it would turn red, merely because if you put a bottle in a glass of water it would turn red. The scale is far too great to have much of an effect.

The effect that humans have on global warming is real, and it is measurable. But it is also negligible. Even if all man made CO2 were to stop, it wouldn't do any good for the "climate crisis".

With water vapor taken out of the picture, man made greenhouse gasses account for about 5.5% of all greenhouse gasses. Quite the significant amount. However, since water vapor accounts for 95% of ALL greenhouse gasses, and something like 99.999% of all water vapor is natural. This makes it so that man made gasses only account for about .23% of all greenhouse gasses.

So yes, man does have an effect, and a measurable one. But a completely negligible one.


Anyhow, I don't have a prediction as to how high gas will go... I know enough about the econemy to know what's going on, but not accurately predict what will happen. I doubt it will go over $5, as that's a big enough, signifigant enough number to stop people from driving much.

Heck, I'm buying a Honda Metropolitan scooter tomorrow. Can't even afford to drive my mustang.

Are you a climate scientist?

gas prices here are 4.19 a gallon, up from 4.12 yesterday

It is the rotational energy of the earth which is causing the moon to move away.. It's been doing so for around 4 billion years now and will continue to do so for quite a while longer. Of course, the earth's rotation is being slowed by the same process.

The moon's orbit is increasing in diameter by about 3.8 centimeters per year, that is a little more than an inch in 240,000 miles.

3.8/(240,000*5280*12*2.54) = 9.83837721 ? 10^-11

Thats 9.83 x 10^-9 % per year..

Not exactly a major influence, the variability of solar radiation is many times that and it is at a minimum in the 11 year cycle right at this moment.

there are better, more detailed links, but i'm sick of fighting the GW argument. basically, i found this on a limited search. so let's start drilling for new oil so our predictions can go down rather than up!

https://cei.org/pdf/5331.pdf

You know, I'm not a climate scientist (I'm an Engineer) but I always take what they and anyone else who's livelihood depends on research grants has to say with a grain of salt.

You are the one wanting to bring politics into the discussion.. If you read my comment carefully you will see that I make no mention of politics at all.

If you would like to learn more of popular climatology in an enjoyable fashion I would recommend John Barnes' _Mother of Storms_. It was there that I learned of the methane clathrate beds at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and the major disaster that could unfold should those beds somehow release the thousands of cubic kilometers of methane they currently hold encased basically in ice crystals..

https://www.amazon.com/Mother-Storms-.../dp/0812533453

It's quite clear that the Arctic Ocean is warming, if and whether the clathrate beds release their methane thanks to this is currently an open question.

wise words. here's another good link w/ lots of good info...

www.globalwarming.org

And I take anyone whose livelihood depends on pleasing their corporate employer words with considerably more than a grain of salt..

Maybe a dump truck or two. :D

Are you aware of the environmental impact of that dumptruck load of salt? There's mining it, then processing it, and then the dumptruck...

Fumesucker,

i'm confused. i do not take issue w/ you. and the only reference to politics i made was the blame game concerning Bush. THAT, is more hate and lack of integrity than politics. BTW, i'm an independant voter who blames both major parties for our pathetic and current state of the union.

now, what IS irritating is when someone will not even consider the aposing view. GW is a possibility, but i'm not convinced mankind is the end-all cause, effect, and solution. science is on both sides of the issue.

what complicates things more is when economics is involved in the theory of GW. sure, the USA should lead by example and work to lessen pollution, but at what cost? there should be a level playing field in relation to manufacturing and such in terms of enviro legislation impact on profitability(survivability).

China, India, and who knows how many others push for production w/out the thought of affects on the eco system. i believe, if something isn't done about fuel prices in the US, we could be headed toward a depression. environmentalism, conservationism, and the like go out the window in that scenario.

what's more important here, the environment or people? we need to work on present and future solutions. the question is can people be trusted to be a steward of the earth? it is my hope that we can. sadly, as it stands, mankind is a fossil fuel gluttonous polluter.

good article from non-conservative CNN explaining the rise in fuel costs. i won't ruin it except to say that Bush and the domestic(US) oil companies are NOT to blame according to this report.

https://money.cnn.com/2008/05/20/news...ion=2008052010

And the only reference to politics that *I* made was none at all.

And it's been my experience that "independant" (sic) voters don't talk about "Bush haters"..

The only comment I made was regarding the excruciatingly slow pace of the moon's withdrawal from the earth. How you conflated that into me being a total tool of the Global Warming Chicken Little's I have no idea.

If everyone who drove SUV's to work alone would switch to cars with 4 cylinder motors, our consumption would probably drop close to 25%. with is like 500 million barrels of oil per day. I bet that would drop the price a bit huh? Until we give up the inefficient vehicles. ts only gonna get worse. I still see 75% of the people around here in SUV,s, pickups and minivans. We are one of the few driveways on the whole street with out one of those. And many of them still get frustrated after following me blindly while on the cellphone, and when they finally figure out I'm only doing 60 mph, they just tromp it, and use more gas than my whole 20+ mile trip...
:cool:

Another bumper sticker idea!

"Its not MY fault gas prices are high!"

the independants comment is a generalization. just can't believe so many blame one man for so many issues.

not saying that is your view, just saying there are those that ignore the science aposing their own view(on both sides). again, GW could be a real issue, but we may never know mankinds true influence unless politics is removed from the equation.