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-   -   Get ready to pay more? (https://www.fuelly.com/forums/f8/get-ready-to-pay-more-11325.html)

ZugyNA 05-25-2009 02:40 AM

Get ready to pay more?
 
...

https://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395#more

...

Peak Oil has happened....oil expected to surpass 2008 price peak in ~2 years. This means that transport...food...heating costs go way up for most people. You should prepare?

https://www.theoildrum.com/files/price20090515.png

theclencher 05-25-2009 12:00 PM

Price seems to be the ONLY thing that affects demand...

bowtieguy 05-25-2009 02:13 PM

it would be nice to see this go public on a swine flu-type scale. true or not, guzzler owners would be forewarned to get out of them.

some would ignor it and "maintain", and those that actually need guzzlers could make provisions for the price increase.

ZugyNA 05-26-2009 03:05 AM

Caught Brian Williams (Nightly News)....
 
...on Leno talking about his Mustang and how he liked the power etc. And how this was an F150 nation.

I like fast cars and vrroooom etc...but I've moved to 4 bangers after reading the writing on the wall.

There is a lot of emotional resistance to changing the energy guzzling in the US. Probably why we are in the mideast? Can't give up those Hummers? Will we trash what's left of the planet...or GTFU?

While some can afford $4 a gallon gas...the people who do their service work can't.....higher energy costs will act as a tax on a struggling economy. Most recessions are preceded by high oil prices.

Bottom line....things will not return to what they were. It's game over.

Get the BIG PICTURE:

https://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

SpeedKnight 05-26-2009 08:01 AM

I will admit that demand will drive price somewhat, but there has to be a point at which demand levels off but price keeps going. In fact, I'm sure of it.

It is my opinion that price gouging is occurring at every step of the production of gasoline and dino-diesel. Those selling crude jack the prices up because they know everyone will be driving more in the summer months. They make more profit.
Those who do the refining, jack up their prices to cover the extra cost of crude, and then a little bit more to get a bigger profit.
Those selling the fuel to us jack up the price to do the same.
We pay it because we have no other options (unless we drive diesels and use bio-diesel or vo), really. Certainly some of us are getting mega mileage out fo their cars and motorcycles, but whether you use 1 gallon of gas in 100 miles or 4, you still have to pay for that gas.
As of May 18th, US average gasoline price was about $2.31/gallon ($2.23/gallon for dino-diesel). One year ago, the price was about $3.79/gallon ($4.50/gallon for dino-diesel). Crude prices as of May 15th were $56.52/barrel, down from $126.50 a year ago. The ratio one gets if he compares current gas prices to current crude prices is .041 versus .03 for last year. Where crude prices don't neccessarily always reflect pump price, and there's much more involved than what I discuss here, it seems to me that some sort of gouging is most certainly happening. The ratios tell me that gas prices right now should be about $1.69... a price I certainly haven't seen in months.

Again, there's a whole lot going on with gas prices that I don't know about and would likely never understand. I'm simply using numbers I have found at https://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp# to support my own personal conspiracy theory.
Tell me what you will, I'm convinced we're being taken.

theclencher 05-26-2009 12:34 PM

Of course we're being taken. All the more reason not to enrich the bastids. I'm bicycling EVERYWHERE. I fill my little car less than once a month. My cents/mile are very low; my dollars on gas/whatever period you want are very low too. Gas could go past $10/gal before I spend per mile what today's typical SUV driving doof spends! Can hardly wait for $4 gas again and I suspect it won't be long...

bowtieguy 05-26-2009 01:25 PM

i'm kinda split on this issue...

i don't trust this present (US) executive and legislative gov't to handle this issue w/out major enviro nut influence. i believe the govt is more "evil" than the oil companies(excluding OPEC). however, we are consuming too much, too quickly.

in an ideal world, environmentalists AND economists would sit down w/ congress to reach some sense of a realistic approach as it relates to nature and industry.

there must be a balance that does not encourage over consumption, yet keeps the wheels rolling, literally. we have our own oil, natural, gas, coal, and nuclear capability. this doesn't even touch on electric, propane, or hydrogen. and better designs, like R.I.D.E.'s concept, are paramount.

but, for now, we canNOT punish the poor and middle class w/ high energy costs. the rich WILL be affected eventually, but by then, the economy will certainly be much like that of the great depression.

theclencher 05-26-2009 01:29 PM

Why do we need congress, economists, and environmentalists? If the people would take it upon themselves to not be pigs, that would be the end of it! Oh- that's why we need legislation...

bowtieguy 05-26-2009 01:49 PM

you're right clench, but some people just don't get it, so they need a law or tax to MAKE them understand.

and congress has no clue of how to balance controlling consumption and taxation, OBVIOUSLY!

dkjones96 05-26-2009 02:15 PM

The amount of oil we use on a daily basis is already going down. Why all this talk about people not wanting to down size? They did, last year, and now that gas is cheap they enjoy the savings even more.

A lot of people didn't even travel this last weekend that normally do. Everyone was afraid of a gasoline price spike that never happened because demand didn't increase. It hasn't increased to what it was before the spike, so much so that middle-eastern oil companies are saying they want to shut down wells so supply isn't out-running demand like it is now making oil so 'cheap'. I agree that the price of fuel will go up, but it won't be because demand spikes.

Your math on what fuel should be costing us with oil at its current price isn't correct. It's a flat rate of government taxes that is ever increasing. In 2008 New Mexico federal and state combined tax was 36.4cpg (18cpg state with a federal(true in all states) of 18.4cpg). Within the next year we'll see the bill pass congress that puts a minimum 29.9cpg state tax on fuel.

Until this hits anyways: https://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,339589,00.html

For state and federal tax amounts: https://www.api.org/statistics/fuelta...Map_4_2009.pdf

Wyldesoul 05-26-2009 03:29 PM

Just a quick note.. You do realize that they've been saying we've hit the peak of the oil production curve since the 70's, right? They've always said that within the next five years, production will drop. And the only reason production has slowed or dropped is due to artificial limiting, either by actively slowing production activities (as in OPEC) or by preventing the creation of new production facilities (As in the USA).

Personally, I've never come across any real evidence that convincingly says that oil is running out, due primarily to the fact that they never seem to acknowledge man made decreases in production.

Not that I don't think that the price of gas and oil are going to be going up, which is why I like my bike.

theclencher 05-26-2009 03:55 PM

"The amount of oil we use on a daily basis is already going down. Why all this talk about people not wanting to down size? They did, last year, and now that gas is cheap they enjoy the savings even more."

What- 3 or 4 %? That's not enough to do anything. Informal traffic survey on my street shows just as much rippin' around as ever.

"Just a quick note.. You do realize that they've been saying we've hit the peak of the oil production curve since the 70's, right? They've always said that within the next five years, production will drop."

The devil is in the details biff. If I'm not mistaken, U.S. production DID peak in the '70s. Is that what you heard then? If so, that was correct. Then in the interim, the discussion probably changed to global peak oil... which may be upon us as we speak, or may not, but at any rate is probably not as far off into the future as we'd like.

bowtieguy 05-26-2009 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZugyNA (Post 135202)

good site, i'm in the process of reading thru it. just like any conspiracy theory, it's worth looking for some truth in it.

he does suggest some great ideas like save and conserve. and it can't be all bad, as he believes the US govt is spending w/out clue of the end result!

Ford Man 05-26-2009 04:23 PM

Prepare to pay more?? Hell I'm paying nearly $.50 a gallon more now than I was a month ago and I hope I'm wrong, but I expect to see at least $3. a gallon before the end of the summer.

JanGeo 05-28-2009 05:24 AM

As it has in the past years - the price will rise until the end of June then fall a little...

Wyldesoul 05-28-2009 06:37 AM

US production didn't peak in the 70's. It slowed advancement in th 70's because that's when we built our last refinery, and that's when we limited all production artificially in the name of stopping a new ice age from all the greenhouse gasses.


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