Gas Prices Headed Down, How Low Will They Go?
 

With gas prices headed lower across the US and west Texas crude at 85$ per barrel, how low do you think gas prices will go this winter? I predict the national average will drop below 3$ per gallon and am hoping local prices in Illinois will be down to 2.75$ at some point this winter.

Kuripot Kevin

You have fuel that goes down? Wow, in the UK it only goes up and up and up, even though everyone knows the price of oil is dropping. Still paying around $10 a gallon here currently.

The government has ok'ed oil companies classifying the shale oil as a petroleum product as opposed to crude. So the over supply of it that now exists can now be sold on the world market. I think the dropping gas prices will level off soon because of this.

Still dropping here in Illinois, so you think the drop is over Troll? You don't think we'll see 3$ gas this winter?

I just saw gas for $2.999 yesterday in Nebraska. But only at one station. Most of it seems to be running $3.049 to $3.199 (for E-10). Non-ethanol is about 20 cents higher.

I had been looking casually at the idea of a smaller, more economical vehicle to use when my pickup is overkill. Trouble is, the tax and insurance on that extra vehicle would run about a thousand dollars a year. Yes, I'd save fuel. But no, I wouldn't save money.

The Bakkan shale oil is a light, sweet crude once it is processed to be shippable. The Gulf coast refineries where most it goes are designed to handle heavy crude from South America. They don't want the shale oil, but take it for less than the average price per barrel, which is what the news report quote oil prices. It could be as low as $20 under per barrel that they pay for it, and the shale oil producers are unwilling to reduce output.

Now that they can start exporting the shale oil, the Japanese will gladly buy it for greater than average barrel price. It will be cheaper than what OPEC charges them. Then all the shale oil will go overseas, and refineries here won't have an undermarket value crude to reduce costs with.

It looks like we'll see $3 gas here, but this is also winter blend which is made with some cheaper factions from the crude. The effects of allowing shale oil being exported aren't in effect yet. They will be by summer time when the more expensive gasoline is made.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keysto...154936872.html

Did anyone see this article on the proposed Canadian pipeline?

So I heard on the news that oil has dropped to a 4 year low of $83 a barrel. I wish the UK government adjusted our prices, but like I said, our fuel barely changes in price, and hardly ever goes down.

I was just out driving the bus today (10/15/14) and saw gas for $2.959 at three or four stations. Diesel seems to be running about $.50 higher than gasoline, which largely offsets any saving due to better fuel mileage.

How can just 50 cents a gallon make a diesel not worth having? If gas was $3 and diesel was $6 then diesel would be just as cheap to run as a gas as they generally go twice as far.

Our diesels typically don't get twice the fuel mileage as their gas counterparts. The other thing you have to figure in is the cost difference between buying a gas car vs diesel as a diesel engine option usually fetches a few thousand more than the same vehicle with a gas engine. Unless you buy used, drive many many miles, or really want a diesel, in many cases your better off buying a fuel efficient gas vehicle over here because it will take a long time to realize some savings.

Many diesels in the US will cost less over a 3 or 5 year than their gas counter part in TCO. Yes, they cost more to buy, but they will recoup most of that extra cost on resale or trade in. Or fuel costs if driven far and/or long. The EPA TCO numbers are further helped by the fact that diesels tend to do better than EPA more often than gasolines.

The issue in the US market is that we have a small selection of diesels, and many that we do get are a larger displacement than available in Europe. The smallest size we have is 2.0L. When the Cruze Eco with the 1.4T gets nearly the same EPA rating as the Cruze diesel, the diesel isn't going to do as well. GM does have smaller diesels in the Cruze overseas though. The savings become obvious when the engine is like vs like, as in the the BMW 328d and 328i. Which is the other issue with diesel cars for the US. Most are in expensive luxury brands.

Diesel trucks are an easier sell. The can haul more than the fuel efficient gas version, and get much better fuel economy than the gas of equivalent payload. People don't tow with cars in the US. That, and stricter tow rating standards, means that cars no longer have a tow rating. Older VW TDI Jetta wagons were rated for a ton, but nothing is published for the current model.

Thats because US marketed cars are engineered lazy too, a lot still use the very dated torque converting autos (which I hate!) and typically have 5 or 6 gears. European cars use double clutch boxes which are much quicker at changing gear, are lighter and can have anywhere between 8 and 12 gears keeping the revs lower when cruising. On saying that, a good 80% of cars here are manual thankfully, which are instantly around 25% more efficient than an auto to begin with. And also, strict carbon emission standards have had auto makers fine tune engines these days for efficientcy as well as performance. The 3.0 diesel found in the new BMW 5 series does 0-60 in 4.8 seconds and still does close to 60 MPG too. Best of both.

It is difficult to make direct comparisons, because it is rare for exactly comparable vehicles to be available with gas or diesel options. From what I have seen, it is usual for a diesel to make 30% to (maybe)50% better mileage. The diesel engine option is usually considerably more expensive, too. These comparisons do not use government tests, but actual real driver use. For instance, Consumer Reports gives the gas mileage of the Chevrolet Cruze as 26; the turbo diesel as 33. They have commented that the diesels of today are not the same as the noisy, smelly, and smoky diesels of the past.

My own experience with a diesel was a Renault-based Winnebago LeSharo. It had a 2.0 liter turbo diesel, said by its service manual to produce 75 BHP. It got about 17 mpg. When I had some work done by Winnebago Industries, I had a good chance to talk to the techs. They told me the 2.0 turbo diesel (manual transmission) and the 2.0 liter gas (with auto transmission) got almost exactly the same mileage, about 17. That doesn't seem to me to show diesels getting twice the mileage.

The post is about gas prices btw. We're down under 3$ here in east central IL at some stations. Toward the middle of the state they're around $2.80. I expect them to go lower. That is a real savings for me driving about 80 miles per day. Gasbuddy shows Missouri with the lowest average prices and several stations below $2.50.

Kevin

I think all your data, 1 vehicle, from about 20 years ago, which isnt even a car is a little outdated Charon! I could show you at least 100 cars that get double the mileage of thier gas equivelents. Take a V8 for example, Audi V8 TDI gets 40+ MPG, whereas a gas V8 you're probably looking at 20's MPG. Another thing to condider is that in the UK diesels are cheaper to insure, my new car despite being bigger, with a larger engine and being worth twice as much as my old car, is around $750 a year LESS to insure, so the extra cost is soon made worth while.

2011 Golf TDI (40.8 mpg)
2014 Mini Hardtop 3 cyl (40.5 mpg)
The mini uses premium that cost a bit more than diesel in the summer, but diesel cost a bit more in the winter. There was no mpg advantage either way between these two vehicles. TDI had more torque yet the Mini felt faster.

The Golf TDI is rated at 94 MPG here, and the mini just 56 MPG. Sure I know the tests always feature hard to acheive figures in the real world, but there's stil a huge difference. The only gas engines that come close to diesel economy are all tiny turbocharged units, which end up being less economical as you tend to work them and rev them harder, just the nature of the engines.

Sorry for going off topic, it always does! Well I just fuelled up and it seems our fuel has dropped a little amazingly! Just paid $10.02 a UK gallon (just over $8 for a US gallon) could be better, could be worse.

I never said the data was current - I said it was my own experience. And the unit was sold as an '84, on a Renault '83 chassis, so it is actually a 30-year old unit. The LeSharo was based on a Renault Trafic. It did indeed fulfill its design object of getting about twice the mileage of conventional motor homes, although at the price of being painfully underpowered. It worked during the late lamented days of the USA 55 mph speed limit, the same general era of the also dreadfully underpowered VW Diesel bunny.

Because of their rarity, the auto makers can increase the diesel price through extras. The base diesel is usually the equivalent of the mid-level trim of the gasoline model in terms of features at the very least. The Cruze diesel is closer to the high end Cruze.

Consumer Reports fuel economy testing is unscientific. It is performed outside, spring through fall, in Connecticut. Not only does that allow weather to be a variable, but also use locally available fuels so that seasonal blends and varying ethanol content come into play. They don't disclose temperatures on the day of testing. They also don't disclose the test profile they are following on their track, and then do some of the test on local roads with traffic.

The steady speed highway portions is probably the only number of any value. Otherwise their numbers aren't going to be repeatable, and they aren't comparable between models.

I paid $3.09 gal to fill up earlier this week. It was down to $3.05 a couple days later.

Consumer Reports says their MPG figures are an average of several tests, but as you say they don't disclose their procedures. They do claim to use some real-world on-the-streets testing. I have found their tests to come up just a little lower than my own results, probably because I do not live in a city so my driving is more highway biased.

Our EPA has been under some pressure to make their testing more realistic, partly based on lawsuits by individuals who claim their mileage is significantly lower than EPA. I do suspect that EPA testing and testing by others (especially the reported figures from the UK) seldom or never use wide-open throttle acceleration, so the engines never get into "turbo boost." I personally believe part of the test should involve full power acceleration up a short uphill on-ramp to a highway. But we must remember that EPA testing was never designed to show fuel mileage, but to make sure vehicles are emission compliant.

Well today I travelled on the motorway (highway) for the first time since I bought my new car. I was pretty impressed, I stuck to the limit (70 MPH) with cruise on, forgot to press the ECO button but I still got 73 MPG on the 100+ mile journey, not bad for a car thats not run in yet. Im not saying all diesel cars get double the mileage of thier gas equivelents, but my previous car would have got 38 to 40 MPG for the same trip so it's not far off.

The Cruze diesel you refer to, possibly one of the worse selling cars in the UK, of the 57 diesels for sale only 6 are auto's but I notice the MPG figures are 20% lower in comparison to the manuals, and the emissions are about 30% higher too.

That is an important bit that many simply don't know or have forgotten. The standardized test protocol does allow fair comparison of relative fuel efficiency between models.

I think the current EPA window sticker numbers are close for most cars in real world though. An issue is that the automakers aren't required to perform the 3 new tests, but are allowed to make mathematical approximations instead. Which works fine with most traditional powered cars, but overestimates on hybrids or ones with small displacement turbos.
The Cruze and the Golf, with all its siblings, are the only sub $30k diesel car options we have in the US. The Passat may be close to that in price, but the rest are all Audis, BMWs, and Mercedes. Of course we get further gouged on top of their luxury premiums with a higher diesel one.

The transmission issue is separate from the fuel type. Manuals sell in higher numbers and are geared for efficiency in Europe. In the US, nearly all manuals are geared for performance because that's what the few that buy them want them for. Even those installed in economy models. So the test numbers for automatics are near, or even better than, the manuals.

In Missouri we got down to $2.69!!
I filled my tank and the next day it went to $2.99, which is still amazing.

A friend of mine just posted this on Facebook. Not sure how true it is, but i'm praying this happens!

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/person...-litre-4505655

Just paid $2.799 here in east central IL. WTC is still hovering around $80/bbl. and Goldman Sachs has slashed there oil price forecast for 2015 to $75 from $90.

At this rate, gasoline should keep falling and I expect to pay less than $2.50/gal. in the very near future. If nothing changes we could see sub $2/gal. gas.

Ours here in Ottawa just went up again to $1.10 per litre - about $3.78/gallon. Not bad really....only about $60 for a fill up.

Just heard on the news, oil prices have dropped 25% since June, but prices at the pumps here in the UK have dropped by 4.5% only. Daylight robbery! Some vote hunting politicians have said they are going to "ask" Petrol companies to consider dropping prices more.

How much of your gas price is taxes? Are they a flat amount or percent base? Depending on those and other factors, like distribution costs, a decrease in the crude price may not appear as significant on the pump price.

I think around 60 - 70% is taxation. Price of fuel affects the price of everyhing here as most goods are delivered via road. One of the contributing factors as to why the US is a very cheap place to live too, cheap fuel, not to mention a lot of products are probably home grown/farmed.

Fortunately, with Fuelly, we can actually compare an equivalent gas vs diesel with real world numbers instead of the EPA or Euro ratings. I have a 2014 Grand Cherokee Eco Diesel. If we look at the regular V6 on Fuelly, the average is 19MPG. The average diesel GC is around 25MPG or 32% better than the gas engine. My diesel is averaging around 27MPG or about 42% better.

The most popular car on Fuelly, the 2014 VW Jetta, is averaging around 34MPG for the 2.0 Gas engine and 40MPG for the 2.0 diesel. In that case the diesel is around 18% better.

So, real world, we are a far cry from double, but diesels do provide a measurable improvement over their gas equivalent.

Diesel is about 35% more that 87 octane where I fill up. The diesel cars themselves are about 3K-5K more expensive than their gas counterparts. The numbers don't add up in the USA thanks to all the clean air regulations. I know it's off my own topic but I couldn't help myself.

Kevin

Thats a huge difference in price. The demand here for diesel is larger, hence the slight price hike, but as most cars are gas in the US, you'd expect diesel to be cheaper. You will begin to see more diesels in the US, as the growing pressure from other Nations for the US to reduce its C02 emissions (gas cars emit 100 - 400% more than C02 than diesels) and also future CAFE standards require high average MPG's.

In actual fact, per volume unit of fuel, diesel emits more CO2 than gasoline because of the higher proportion of carbon in diesel fuel. Diesels also emit more NOx because of their excess oxygen in the cylinders during combustion. Diesel vehicles may emit less CO2, but if so it is only because they burn less fuel. There exist technologies to reduce NOx, at the cost of efficiency, but the only way to reduce CO2 is to reduce the amount of fuel burned. Of commonly available fuels the "cleanest" in terms of CO2 production is natural gas, but it presents other difficulties such as on-vehicle storage in useful amounts.

Most vehicle operators, particularly commercial operators for whom fuel is a much higher percentage of operating cost than private individuals, care a lot more about cost of operation than about "saving the planet." That is why it requires government intervention to set pollution standards. Government intervention can take many forms, ranging from fuel taxes to CAFE requirements to exhaust emission limits.

As a minor aside, China now has surpassed the USA in CO2 emissions. Other growing economies such as India are on the same route. None of them seem willing to reduce their carbon emissions, as all see that as stifling their growth.

Forgive me if im wrong, math is not my best subject, but my diesel emits 70000% (seventy thousand percent!) more C02 than it does N0X (i probably did the math wrong, please correct me if i'm wrong. Using my car as an example, C02 emissions = 90 grams per km, N0X = 0.13 grams per KM)

I know the latter is bad for health, but in direct comparison, it's still a tiny fraction. Depending on who you beleive, most sceintists now agree that C02 is harmful to the environment, even though its naturaly produced, so reducing it will help anyway. And I appreciate there are Nations with higher C02 outputs but remember the US only accounts for about 5% of the Worlds population.

Carbon dioxide has a global impact, and can be real bad for the oceans, but it doesn't have the health impact of NOx. The only way to control CO2 emissions on a vehicle is improve fuel economy or use a carbon neutral fuel.

The Us doesn't have many diesel cars. Actually fewer than hybrids, but diesel is still used for shipping(it's a big place), agriculture, and heating in the North East. Then there is the fact that ULSD production allows the refineries to ship what used to be a surplus to Europe.

Because there are fewer diesel choices, the auto companies can charge more for them by putting in standard features that are optional on the base gasoline model. The flip side though is that the diesels hold their value better. So the TCO for them is the same or better than the gas one.

China and India may have surpassed the US in carbon emissions for the nation, but our per capita levels still dwarf theirs. Plus, part of their emissions is due to us off shoring our manufacturing to them.

Stopped at a station near work after i heard they had the cheapest gas locally. A little off from my commute loop but at 2.799 a gallon I couldn't pass it up. I usually run the tank down a little lower but made an exception for the price. Less than 6 cents a mile! Fraktacular!

Unfortunately lower prices will probably lead to more consumption and prices bouncing back up. But in the meantime Dodge will probably sell more Hellcats. :lol:

Old thread.

I last drove my diesel truck on Nov 1st. At that time, fuel locally was $3.22 a gallon after being about 3.85 for the previous two years. I knew I wasn't going to drive it again until April, so I filled it up, thinking price would go back up by then.

Nope, saw $2.58 today for Diesel. I took on 45 gallons in November, but haven't used any of it, so my "going long" Diesel in November has so far cost me $30.60.

I just paid 1.58/gal. Wow what a difference 2 years can make! A couple states have prices in the $1.30's now, will we see $1 gasoline before it all goes to h*ll?
Kevin