I PREDICT, once battery tech delivers EVs with 300-400 driving range...
 

...car makers will offer the same model with a 150-200 mile driving range option.

It's the same as ICE cars offering engine upgrades.

Fewer batteries will make EVs more affordable and attractive to those that don't need long range for their daily commute. Heck. Perhaps you'll be able to customize your battery range entirely.

Perhaps, if you want to use your EV for a long distance trip, the dealer can "rent" you more batteries. Or, you just rent an EV with the long range capability.

Thoughts?

I've got the "wait and see" attitude:

• Today's EVs don't affect me.
• Guessing about the future's EVs doesn't affect me.
• What I think about EVs, current or future, doesn't affect them.

Spending brain cycles on this stuff is like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

Depends on the tune.

Tesla already offers battery size options. The Ioniq Electric is getting a larger pack, so Hyundai might also be doing so.

I have a feeling most people will opt for the longer range, and will be willing to pay more for the benefit. I mean how many people walk into a Ford showroom and buy the 2.3 ecoboost over the V8 Mustang? Probably not many. My car as standard had 250 bhp, but for £1600 more, you get bigger, lighter wheels, bigger brakes, a limited slip diff, massaging bucket seats, 20 bhp more etc. Peugeot then made all that standard on the gti as everyone opted for it anyway. It would be the same for EV's I would guess. Most people are willing to pay more to get more.

The Gorilla in the room is the TCO for the battery option, but I agree with the "waste of brain use" in getting in another argument about whatever. I chose the option I'm presently taking and it's working perfectly for me, and that's all that really matters to me.

But you're assuming the battery will need replacing, they are designed to last the life of the car and beyond. How many people keep a car until the most expensive part fails? Very few. It's the same with EV'S, most people change thier cars every 3-5 years, so the battery cost is something 99.9999% of people don't have to worry about.

The majority of ICE cars only have a 3 year warranty here, even the cheaper EV's have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, not that that means the battery will only last 8 years. The average age of all cars in the UK is 7.4 years.

I expect the same, but Ford still offers that base V6 and that Ecoboost. It is going to come down to the actual price difference when the incentives are gone on whether a manufacture offers different battery options, and what the floor for shortest range will be.

The latest report from UBS is predicting BEV to ICE TCO could reach parity in 2018.

What's more likely is manufactures offering to retrofit larger capacity batteries as time goes on, like Renault do with the Zoe. Not sure of the upgrade cost, but any Zoe owner with an old 22 KW battery can have Renault fit them a 44 KW battery for a "fee" and a small increase in the monthly lease. In this respect, you pretty much double your range but not your monthly lease, and given you'll cut down on public charging which aren't free anymore either, it will probably save money in the long run.

I can see that being the case in regards to battery leases, but battery leases have their own cons; mainly when it comes to resale.

I'm on the fence with that one, knowing that you won't have to fork out on a new battery for a high mileage 10-15 year old EV might work in its favour. Older EV's with tired batteries might have lower resale values as some will assume the battery will need replacing sooner rather than later.

The used smart EDs with the battery lease tend to sit on the lot around here. Guess those looking for used car don't want a monthly fee with it.

Yes short term it's less economical, but for those on a smaller budget buying older EV's in a few years time, the lease might be a godsend if they needed to replace the battery shortly after purchase. There are pros and cons to both options I guess.

Leasing a car = buying the depreciation.

I'd say they would be better off not getting an used BEV if they were worried about, or couldn't afford replacing the battery.

Not necessarily, most people lease cars now, it's very popular these days as there's a small deposit and rather than pay a balloon payment at the end of the term, you either give the car back or upgrade. Think long term rental.

Well it will happen eventually, as EV's get older and make thier way down the market, and it would be unfair if poorer people were penalised because they can't afford a "greener" car. This happened previously with fuel and road tax increases, everyone who could afford a newer cleaner, greener car bought one, and those that couldn't faced high taxes. Punish the less wealthy, as usual.

It might be "most" people in the UK but not even close in the US. Probably fewer than 10% of the vehicle population are leases here. I would consider "most" as over 50% minimum.
MOST leases here are tax write-offs.

80% of new cars registered here are financed some how, including leasing, and at least 60% are leased. In the US it's around 34% which are leased and it's rising fast.

If the batteries prove to be short lived, that will be reflected in the used car price. The unknowns of battery life right now is part of the reason for BEV's large depreciation already.

Leasing the battery on a new car might be a deal. I think the smart battery lease here cuts the car price by 10 grand. The lease is $960 a year before tax, for ten years. You get an extended battery warranty without having to pay the entire battery price upfront.

For a used BEV buyer, it isn't much of a deal. The price difference between a used fortwo ICE and ED will be quickly covered by the battery lease fees. Yes, they got some protection in case of battery failure, but major component failure is a risk on all used cars to some degree. Prepared people will budget for that, and those with concerns will get an extended warranty.

What happens when a person doesn't pay the lease fees? Can the battery owner seize the car that they may not have legal ties too?

I think battery leasing was needed in the beginning, but battery costs have dropped a lot since then, and most people will opt for a refurbished pack over new for replacement in a used car. I expect costs to the car owner will be in line with that of a transmission or engine replacement.

I've always thought a 50/50 lease deal would be an idea, so the car owner pays half of what they would usually be charged, and if/when the battery needs replacing, the dealer covers half the cost at the time of replacement. I'm sure that's being considered as we speak.